The issue to me isnt people already in the hobby dropping out, its new people who are opting for something else due to the prices.
The basic problem is that most of these new people are coming from smaller scales and they want to keep doing what they were doing in the smaller scales, namely mainline standard guage, which is where the highest price increaes have happened. Prices were relatively stable up to just a few years ago when Aristo dropped the price bomb right after EPL did the Big Hindenburg. Was that just price gouging on ACs part? No, history has shown that those price increases have been consistant and ongoing since then due to political and economic forces inside the PRC, so I’m fully aware of all the economic pressures that are forcing alot of these increases but its going to have a real long term impact on the hobby.
There will always be a segment that will always be able to afford the hobby, thats why Accucraft and Aster are still around, but for the more economicly pressed members of the hobby, its a tough time when all your stock and track prices rises 10-20% every year, sometimes twice a year. If you know how to do it you can do this cheaply, Mik and Me being examples, but theres a big learning curb there (kitbashing and dumpster diving) and there is also a proactive decision to model SMALLER TRAINS on SMALLER LAYOUTS, I’m sorry but Allen and me and guys like us are now a SMALL minority in this scale, and while we would be considered right in the middle of the pack in the UK or Europe we are off on the fringe of the overall mainstream US layouts, and its there that I see the hemmoraging occuring. I once thought the prices would bring a renaissance in small layout planning and building, but instead I’m seeing that if people cant afford what they want, namely large dismals pulling long trains on wide curves, they are instead saying “screw it” and staying with the smaller scales or just saying “really screw it” and go fishing!
So as time progresses I see fewer new member participating, those who do will be more affluent and will be able to afford the Brave New World prices. The major manufacturers already see the writing on the wall, which is why we are now getting smaller production runs and higher prices for those smaller runs. Its simple economics, now instead of Indy’s being blown out at Trainworld, they didnt make a zillion of them and end up eating them at $75 each, but made a handfull at around $200 and sold out of every one of them. Thats the new model folks, buy it when it comes out or you’ll have to wait till someone parts with one on Ebay.
As for me I’m still building my layout, I was fortunate to have bought all my track before the big increases hit and I have a large roster built up over the last decade (have I really been in this for that long?), I wouldnt be so fortunate today. Even with my adherence to R1s its still expensive, but buying used, kitbashing and scratchbuilding still make it accessible for me, but I’m not everyone. Not everyone has my skillsets. I still intend to cart the Pizza where ever I can to demonstrate that Yes! you can still have fun in this scale without a large backyard. So in a few years I figure guys like me will be much fewer in number, as will the overall population in LS, mostly due to a minimum of new members entering the hobby who can afford it. How many manufacturers will adapt and survive? I dunno, time will tell but I can say for certain, I am DONE with Marklin/LGB, and new Bachmann & Aristo are not so much on my radar anymore, I still buy HLW and PIKO but thats going to be pretty much it.
