Large Scale Central

where is Largescale headed?

General Discussion
#1

in another forum they discuss about where largescale is headed.

what do we here think about it?

i’ll start with a little rant:

i think, we can be happy, if largescale does not cease to exist at all in the economic sector.

there are so many factors against it.

first space.
be it space on the shelves for the dealer, or space for the hobbyist. - how many have a 500 - plus squarefeet, indoors or out, at their free disposal?
(with the exception of one californean gentleman. he needs just four squarefeet for an entire layout… :wink: )

second disposable money.
am i the only one, who is noticing, that since about 2008 the “look, what i bought!” threads are getting less and lesser?
ours is an upper middleclass hobby. upper middleclass being eroded by modern economics and politics, there is less and lesser money free to be spent on toys.

third no ample offer of (new) toys.
well, if we are less and lesser hobbyists, with less and lesser disposable money - for whom should companies (with directors in their right mind) produce new toys?
just look around your own empire… how much did you buy new lately?
(in my case, most of the track bought cheap, when a shop went out of business; over half of my locos are second hand; most of my rolling stock is newqida, or no-name-brand cheap stuff)
and… this is an old man’s hobby.
meaning, that every time one of us has reached “game over”, like vultures, we pick the widows clean.

not to mention, that our offspring has no connection whatsoever to (real) railroads, because they disappear more and more from sight.

so, my personal estimation is, that largescale will hide again in its niche somewhere below a stone, where it was from the beginning of the 1900s till the peak of our civilisation in the 1970s.

get used to it. do it yourself, or do without.

#2

That kinda sums it up. I can’t wait 'til spring. I’ve got some toys to play with. (http://largescalecentral.com/externals/tinymce/plugins/emoticons/img/smiley-laughing.gif)

-Kevin.

#3

Large scale is certainly a niche in a shrinking hobby. Trains are still popular with young and old alike as I witnessed at a recent large train show I went to. People of all ages were amazed at the large scale trains on the modular layouts but does their wonder turn into buying the big trains?

I think you hit on it Korm when you wrote that space for a RR and the money to buy them are the greatest blocks. Many of us have bought preowned stuff and turned to building our own to keep our little empires expanding. I know if the used market wasn’t out there I would not have been able to jump into “G”. The latest Trainworld ad has a new LGB conoco tanker for $40 Not a bad price at all but the LGB engines are $600-$1000 OUCH

Another consideration is the maintenance that a outdoor RR requires and as we get older it is hard to get down and harder to get back up so the RR is neglected.

To keep the hobby alive we should all be encouraging guys and gals to build smaller RR’s that are functional and fun. Building a large RR takes a lot of time and money. The future for our large trains might actually be a downsize but of course the manufacturers don’t want to hear that.

#4

I certainly don’t have a problem finding things to spend money on in this hobby, have no idea what I spent last year but a fair guess would be over $5k. This year looks to be about the same if not more depending on if the E6 PRR engine the Train Dept. is coming out with gets produced.

But, I also consider myself more of a collector even though I have a small outdoor railway.

And, I also don’t model after a specific time period or scale size. So that makes it easier for someone like me to find more items to spend money on.

Just last week I ordered (3) LGB Euro passenger cars to go with a Piko German style locomotive I purchased last year, they probably wont get used more then the one time I put them out on the layout to take pictures of them.

So like anything, it all depends what you want, what you need, and what you can afford.

While I think the large scale end of the hobby is most certainly shrinking, I feel there will always be something for someone like me to always purchase.

#5

I think the economy, has a lot to do with it. The price of track is way up. If I was just starting I would think twice about large scale.

Don

#6

I’m trying to stay positive but in my opinion its going to hell in a hand basket. As for new items, except for the really pricey stuff that costs more than I paid for my first new automobile, everything else new looks like a return to the late 80s when the manufacturers were concentrating on pleasing the trains in tulip crowd, referring of course to LGB and Piko, hard to get serious when looking at their offerings. Add to that the cost of track and the future doesn’t look all that great for bringing new folks into the hobby. Just my 2¢

#7

Another thought:

Almost any hobby or interest outside of trains has also gone up in price. Everything costs more money today and everything seems to be getting more specialized. Say you want to go for a bike ride for fun, you can buy a bike for $100 but the better ones are closer to $500 and if you really want to get into it you could spend thousands. Riding gear used to be sneakers, shorts and Tshirt now the gear is over the top including the helmet on your top and specialized shoes that clip on the pedals.

Biking is just an example but most hobbies today simply cost a lot of money. We can also blame our own desires/ human nature to collect stuff.

We could all make due with less but where is the fun in that?

The future of large scale trains I think is still in quality starter sets. If more parents and grand parents would buy the younguns a starter set to circle the tree and it lasts longer than the tree does the next step is to see where that train can go with an expansion of track. And that comes back to interest and affordability.

#8

All I have been hearing is doom and gloom.

The cost of this the cost of that, its the reality of our economy. A 3’ piece of HO track is between 4 and 6 dollars these days, and HO locomotive is $100 plus, then add DCC and sound and you are in the 200 to 300 range. We are a niche in a niche! If I have the money for something new or pre-owned I buy it, if I can’t afford it, I don’t buy it. There is plenty of parts and equipment out there that I can keep running my trains for many years to come. Even now with 3d printing we can get parts made. My 10 year old son is also very interested in trains, so one day when all my trains are his, hopefully he will be running them with his children.

I don’t know where you all are getting your track from, but I am usually paying around $7 a foot for stainless steel. Even with what Scott Polk brought in the prices are in that ball park.

This winter I gave away two G scale train sets to kids, hopefully they will stay train enthusiasts through out there years. My way of promoting my love for this hobby.

In the club that I run, we always promote the hobby when doing shows, Imagine if we stood there telling everyone that came by how expensive this is, how its a lot of maintenance. At that point we may as well stay home and sit in front of the TV. Please stay positive and promote the hobby.

Not everyone can build an empire, stay within your means and build as you go, most everyone I know started out with one small loop in the garden. Expand as time and finances allow.

We are here only for a short time enjoy what you have,

Nico Corbo

#9

There’s a lot of factors in play. The economy is a huge part. Like Korm said space is a factor. Cost is a huge part. Remember when track prices went through the roof because “china was buying all the metal”? Well, china quit buying and metal prices are low, why haven’t track prices come back down?

I also think “large scale” is it’s own worst enemy. Why is there 1:24, 1:29, 1:32? If the manufacturers could have gotten along and chose one scale think about what may have happened. The guys that only buy 1:32 or 1:24 would all be spending their money on the same thing instead of making a small hobby smaller. It would be more like HO where you could buy anything and it runs with anything. I know there are folks who don’t mind the difference in scale and run varying equipment but there are just as many who are died in the wool purists who only run a single scale.

I have a lot more but don’t want to go on a rant.

T

#10

Double post.

#11

As long as there is Live Steam, there will be large scale. Electrics will probably also still continue, but I have serious concerns about just how accessible it will be in the future. There are two factors currently affecting the popularity of LS. Cost and Access.

Cost is pretty apparent to anyone who’s been paying attention, track prices for new are much higher than when the gauge gained mass popularity back in the early 2000s, before copper prices spiked, track could be had for $3 a foot for a while there. Today $7 a foot is common for brass track, that adds up rapidly if you are planning anything substantial. Costs for trains themselves have also risen dramatically, granted the trains available today are probably alot higher quality than the infamous $200 Bachmann Connie with the wonky gearbox, but even today we still get gripes about things arriving broken NIB but overall, things have gotten more expensive, but they have also gotten much better. Look at Bachmann’s latest Annie. The basic problem though is that things in the gauge today are VERY expensive, when what is supposed to be a beginners set costs $350-400 from LGB, thats a huge hurtle, granted the average HO starter set are also fantastically expensive these days, the leap to LS isn’t that much more, it becomes an issue of costs vs space, and in that LS always comes in second due to the large area requirements.

Access to large scale has on a local level almost vanished with brick and mortar shops going away across the nation. The only real presence today is online, the only real way to get a physical look at something before you buy is to go to a train show (if you have any) and hope there will be a vendor with what you want to see. Otherwise you are going to have to look at forums and Youtube and hope to gather enough info to make your purchase decisions. Now for some people this has been the way they have participated all along, but that also means it cuts out of people who might otherwise be exposed to the gauge. I always felt that the cheap Bachmann sets that used to be sold at Orchard or Sams Club every Christmas probably got more people into the gauge than any other single access point. With them long gone and with there being pretty much no advertising beyond GR magazine there has been a dramatic lack of awareness about the gauge in recent years IMHO. They really did open doors.

Overall I see LS becoming very much a niche scale in the future, with the main emphasis being driven by live steam, which while electrics have been struggling, has been going stronger than I have ever seen it. Electrics will still be around, LGB and Piko are still firmly committed to LS as they have a broader world market to work with, and are moving right along with new product. Its the US manufacturers I worry about. Bachmann STOPPED all production of new until they sell off NOS already sitting in the warehouses in China, aside from a couple new cars USA seems to be stuck in neutral, MTH has supposedly offered new product but then, they have always been there own niche in a LS niche with their own fanbase. When Charles Ro reaches the day he decides to hang it all up and go fishing, will that be the end of USA? Hopefully someone in the wings will take over. But Bachmann seems to be backing away from LS in recent years, I think they dramatically over estimated the appeal of 1/20.3 which also is a niche in a niche, so they might in the next couple years either reduce the 1/20.3 line dramatically or drop it entirely in favor of 1/22.5 which is at least compatible with LGB and Piko, and thus more marketable in a world wide market. Remember, China is now in control of Bachmann, and they are going to be thinking globally, and not caring what the small US 1/20 niche might care about.

Something to think about

#12

My thoughts as a long time off again on again model railroader that 1) for many of the reason Korm describes modeling in general and model railroad in general is a diminishing hobby 2) Model railroading has always been a niche hobby and large scale a niche with in that 3) the economy sucks and that doesn’t help 4) kids have other things to captivate their attention and imagination.

With that said I don’t think it will die anytime soon. Model railroading is still a big business where HO and N are lively and there will always be a group that will want to go bigger. From what I have gathered from all of you is there was a time when if you wanted something you built it. I see that happening again. With 3d printing, casting, vinyl cutters, new start up foundry companies, I think we will see a rise in mom and pop cottage shops catering to an elite few die-hards.

I for one have a plan to buy enough rail, tie strips, wheel sets, and motor blocks to set me for life while still available. Those are the things I can not make readily and then the rest will be scratch building an empire. Hopefully 40 years from now my trains will still be comin’ around the bend.

#13

I will add that overall, model railroading still appears to be very popular, the last show I was at was extremely crowded, and that was despite very bad weather over two days.

#14

Who can guess my age?

I like Baseball, Trains, and Art, I play Cribbage and Pitch brilliantly and Golf badly. I’m a Grammar lover, I read Books that are made of paper, and I talk to people on the Telephone (oh no, say it ain’t so). Heck, I’ll even go out and toss the Bocce balls around with the old timers who aren’t dead yet, or even, gasp!, Horseshoes.

I’ll give you a hint as to my age: I’ve lived long enough to see everything I like periodically forecasted as doomed.

#15

I the UK the LS is considered 1:32 - 1:19, and now a growing niche 1:13, running on 32 or 45 mm gauge track. The hobby divides roughly between those who run DC/DCC and those who run Live Steam/Battery. Dare I say there seems a wiff of social division between the two. I straddle both camps. There is a growing crossover between the camps I have mentioned though, as can be seen in the membership profiles of the 2 main, 3 if you include G1 purists, hobbyist societies here.

I think what has driven the hobby here, apart from growing availability of product, has been a growth in home ownership and the availability of generously provisioned pensioners since the 1970’s. A heady combination of long term contribution to state and final salary occupational ones. Go to any of the main societies’ shows and you will be greeted by throngs of those said pensioners and those at the peak earnings period of their working lives.

Problem is we are now going in reverse - Those generous pension deals, e.g. final salary, have all but disappeared to be replaced by vastly inferior “money purchase” options that earners are having difficulty raising sufficiant funds to pay into for a decent income in retirement. We are also slowly reverting back to the '70’s norm of 30/70 home ownership profile from the present 70/30. Add to that a vast swathe of middle income semi skilled white a blue collar workers, that were the main prospects with disposable income for this hobby’s growth, are finding their jobs disappearing to be replaced by work at minimum wage level and lucky to be full time.

The hobby will survive, if only because there are still a lot of those big pension pots that have built up to play out over the next 20-25 years. Then there is a glut of good 2nd hand kit that will come into the market (whole load of shelf queens) over a similar period that has built up over the main growth period of this hobby up to now. Well we don’t live forever and circumstances and interests change. While, because of the aforesaid, their may be a dwindling of “mass produced” players’ offerings I do see a marked growth in the niche areas from “artisan” makers taking advantage of the growth of low cost tooling and production methods - CAD, laser cutting,3D printing, Resin/white metal and brass moldings, etc’. Max

#16

Every thing has ups and downs, look at gas prices, stock market, interest rates, or many other things.

No hobbies are cheap. Boating, Golf, Guns, and how about going to sporting events. Tickets are out of sight for the average person. I am just going to enjoy the hobby how ever it goes Mostly I buy used stuff, and have more than I need.

#17

I found it pricey when I first started over 25 years ago. LGB was about it and Aristo had just started. Started small, made some stuff but didn’t buy new at all, always used. Still buy used, lots of stuff out there compared to when I first started. From what you read, people’s earning power has not gone up in years, but everything else has. I’m a pension guy with my teacher and military pension and SS. So buy if I want, but cutting back due to room, my age and having pity on my kids/wife getting rid of it when I’m gone.

#18

The economy is the bottom line. In the 90s-Early 2000s (the peak of LS), the economy was strong and solid for the most part. People had a fair amount of disposable income to devote to hobbies. More money in the market encouraged manufacturers and retailers to expand. Times were good. Plus, manufacturing prices in China were very low, so it was possible to turn a solid profit on R&D and manufacture of LS Locos and rolling stock, at an affordable retail price point. Flash forward to 2008 … the economy went into the proverbial toilet. Consumers were faced with making decisions like - Pay the rent, or buy a LS Locomotive - A no brainer for most. while manufacturing prices in the Orient continue to climb, and the Chinese factories trying to cut their own cost by making things as cheaply as possible - many manufacturers were faced with the choice of taking fairly shoddy items, or paying more for items that met their usual specs - thus having to either raise their retail prices (which were facing resistance for buyers already), or eating the increased cost and losing profits that were shrinking anyway. Many online retailers were forced out of the business. Many manufacturers followed. Grim times. Some manufacturers are continuing on, as are e-retailers, but they are struggling. We, as consumers, can just quit buying, but manufacturers with inventory sitting on shelves, can’t simply eat the loss and still maintain a business. Grim times will not de-grim in the near future, but we will recover. Those retailers and manufacturers/distributors that failed in the recession will not be around to see it.

#19

If you live in a rural area, there may be room for a garden railway. But in the city lots have continuously shrunk as land costs and taxes have gone up. When I bought my previous house there was a minimum of 16 feet between houses and two-car garages were on the side on the house. Now single houses are only 8 feet apart, enough for two gates, and the garages form part of the house. Taxes are now bases on property value instead of frontage because the width of the lots have shrunk so much.

In order to provide a decent backyard, front yards have shrunk. You can no longer park one car behind another. New suburban streets no longer have sidewalks and resemble canyons walled with thin two-storey homes.

But now even backyards are shrinking. Our neighbours moved to a new and more expensive home. A thin two-story home with a small front lawn. The back yard is a very short laneway to the garage from a street behind the house, and a small deck and interlock patio. Not a blade of grass to be seen. And these maintenance free back yards are a selling point.

Large scale railroading is becoming a rich man’s hobby when you consider the costs of the land and railway equipment. Many of us baby boomers enjoy the fruits of our labours and pensions. But the majority now have to compete with a global economy. I don’t think they are going to be as lucky.

#20

5 years ago there were plenty of 1 20.3 models being made from ready to run to kits and other bits and bobs

and 1 29 there was plenty to get excited about

and being from the uk 1 32 had really taken off and is still quite strong and tempting

but the above usa scales just seem to have stopped, i still seem to spend quite a lot but there is little about for a reasonable price new and

usually little about second hand although recently i have found the best bargains i have seen for 10 years

i dithered on some but managed to get a never run live steam k37 for a third of the price new ones used to go for

generally though prices are still pretty high in the second hand market and on ebay so people must still be buying

and there is always lots of lgb and the more basic bachmann products available on ebay and at second hand shops