Large Scale Central

So is 1:20.3 RTR pretty much dead?

General Discussion
#41

Randy Lehrian Jr. said:

Pete, I would be interested in an M1 too. I know of a possible three others that might be as well. If you think this may have traction you can get in touch with some details and I can contact them.

Randy, Lorna, there was never any doubt that they could sell 10 copies. Unfortunately, the way it works is that you plonk down a lot of $$ for the pilot model and then subsequent copies are not so expensive.

I dug around in my files from 2010 and found the original quote - it was for 15 units, not 10.

Project: 1:20.3 scale brass model of M-1 railcar
Appearence: 750 x 125 x 152 mm
Development cost: $8825.0USD totally
Model unit price: $1250.0USD per piece, FOB Wuhu
MOQ: 15pcs (minimum order quan.)

Which works out at about $2,000 each., and you have to order all 15 then resell them. The project cost is $8850+(15 models @ $1250) or $27,600. Which I don’t have. And after my debacle with the steel boxcar (different vendor, and it turned up very non-scale and a mirror image of the plans,) I am not inclined to risk any of my capital.

I think this is a pretty standard way of handling a project like this. You do have to stay on top of the pilot development - I recall the UK guys made a trip to China when they commissioned the A4 pacific.

#42

“And after my debacle with the steel boxcar (different vendor, and it turned up very non-scale and a mirror image of the plans,) I am not inclined to risk any of my capital.”

(https://www.largescalecentral.com/externals/tinymce/plugins/emoticons/img/smiley-yell.gif)(https://www.largescalecentral.com/externals/tinymce/plugins/emoticons/img/smiley-surprised.gif)(https://www.largescalecentral.com/externals/tinymce/plugins/emoticons/img/smiley-yell.gif)*******!

#43

excited people, note quote is from 8 years ago… and your cost at that time was $2k each not 1250 and that was contingent on selling all of them.

that $2,000 in 2010 is about $2,400 in today’s dollars just following inflation of the dollar, probably not enough figuring on the shrinking of the market, manufacturers have to charge more.

Pete, I am curious, was the steel boxcar prototype/pilot model good and the subsequent production wrong, or was it all wrong?

Greg

#44

Greg,

you forgot import tariffs from China, not an insignificant amount these days. it would be nice to bring may of the large scale items back home. But most of the tooling if not all is owned by them. domestic production is probably still to expensive any way you slice it.

Al P.

#45

Greg Elmassian said:

excited people, note quote is from 8 years ago… and your cost at that time was $2k each not 1250 and that was contingent on selling all of them.

that $2,000 in 2010 is about $2,400 in today’s dollars just following inflation of the dollar, probably not enough figuring on the shrinking of the market, manufacturers have to charge more.

Pete, I am curious, was the steel boxcar prototype/pilot model good and the subsequent production wrong, or was it all wrong?

Greg

Yes, I “mis-spoke” like a true politician. Always good to look it up before quoting from memory! At the time I thought they were under-estimating the price, as M-1 has over 2,000 rivets. Roger had a nice simple brass model of one in On3 that I would have modeled it after, but you still need all the rivets in F scale.

The steel boxcar pilot model was a disaster, so I cancelled the project.

#46

Was not trying to give you a hard time at all Pete, just making sure people did not think that $1,200 in today’s money for one… just like you said before, it’s a commitment and an investment for a short term and you have to weigh the risks.

I recently purchased the last large lots of the QSI Titan decoders, approximately 100… so you work the math, they were significantly over $100 each and came closer to averaging $200 each… I put up the cash, and I did have a friend that wanted a significant number, but it was a lot of money out of the checking account, and I breathed a sigh of relief with the last ones were gone.

I was curious if the pilot model/prototype was the issue, or the subsequent production did not match the prototype, but I surely do not mean to open old wounds, I can sympathize.

Regards, Greg

#47

Thanks for the info Pete!

$1250 does seem reasonable, but adding in the split R&D costs and possible inflation, the price would be getting a bit more extreme. Although 15 units rather than 10 does help defray the R&D costs it may prove to be a challenge to find buyers. I think 10 could be found but I’m not sure about 15. Also I would think every one would submit their equal shares up front in the hopes that WuHu would uphold its end of the bargain rather than one person assuming all the risk, but then I imagine that would narrow the scope of willing buyers as well. I guess M1 will have to go back on the some day list for when the shop is operational and time permits. (it could be a while (https://www.largescalecentral.com/externals/tinymce/plugins/emoticons/img/smiley-foot-in-mouth.gif))

#48

With respect to the M-1, Alan Friedland at The GAL Line can cut the sides and floor for the M-1. You’re on your own for trucks and the roof. You’re also going to be inserting individual rivets into the model until the next century, but life’a journey, not a race. I’m just starting a slightly shortened version using Bachmann 45-tonner trucks.

Is 1:20.3 dead? Not in the least. There’s just enough on the market where one can get involved and build a sizable roster of equipment without the manufacturers making anything new. It’s similar to On30, really. I just got involved with that scale 2 years ago. I’ve built an entire roster–7 locos and 20 or so cars–all of which were manufactured well before I started in the scale. And there’s plenty more where that came from. Not a whole lot of incentive for manufacturers to come out with bumper-to-bumper new products.

Later,

K

#49

Kevin, Is Alan at the GAL Line already offering these M1 kits? or is it a custom order kinda thing. Built two of his 1:20 boxcabs for a friend a couple years ago, took a few weeks to apply all the rivets in the pair, but it was well worth it in the end, they look great!

#50

It’s a custom thing, but he’s got the drawings (Thanks, Pete!), so he should be able to run a set off easy enough.

Later,

K

#51

I have to agree with others, it’s not dead. There is so much available on the used market, especially on the FB swap and shop page. I think more modern stuff has become more popular these days but I also find that crowd to be the type that like to run out of the box stuff. Might be a reason why we see more 1:29TH stuff. The FB train pages like G scale trains and G scale net definitely has a much larger following with modern stuff. 1:20 scale tends to be more scratch builder or kitbasher types. Narrow gauge tends to run shorter cars so you don’t need as much as the powered boxcar guys. If you model logging its even easier. I’ve been building most of my rolling stock so for me I don’t need much other than something to pull and even then how many engines do you need. When you look at the live steam market it’s doing well, with new stuff being produced even though it is a smaller niche.

I always wondered why G scale does so much better in the UK etc. Is it because they run smaller layouts with smaller trains that tend to be more affordable?

#52

“Is 1:20.3 Scale dead”…a question not really well thought out.

Modelling in any scale doesn’t have to be considered “DEAD”.

There is more to a scal than just purchasing, collecting, building, selling, or dreaming. There is also the one action that can keep a scale very much alive, and that is actually “OPERATING” the equipment that was purchased, collected, or built.

Operating the equipment; being it “Roundy-roundy” or the more prototypical “Operation of the railroad”, can do more for keeping interest in a scale VERY MUCH ALIVE, than collecting, and static displays.

Operating the equipment, with friends, or at shows, promotes the LS hobby, and attracts new hobbyists. More people attracts more purchasers, and new equipment for the market. A larger market, means better prices due to larger runs by the manufacturers.

Museums, or collectors are less likely to purchase more than one or two of a car, while operators may buy a dozen. This goes for all scales…

Yes the prices for 1:20.3 equipment have gone up, so has the stuff in the other scales. When I first looked at it, I picked up brand new AMS, and B’mann for up to 50% off, and offered to share with one person complaining about price on this thread…and that was here in Canada, but was never taken up on the offer…but I see he is still complaining about prices to this day. Funny how he still finds an audience, here, now and then. I laugh when I see his name…!!!

#53

"I always wondered why G scale does so much better in the UK etc. Is it because they run smaller layouts with smaller trains that tend to be more affordable? "

Almost everyone in the UK has a “garden”, and there is a lot of history with trains there, and many operating steam locos, thus a perfect place.

Greg

#54

Shawn Viggiano said:

I always wondered why G scale does so much better in the UK etc. Is it because they run smaller layouts with smaller trains that tend to be more affordable?

.

Depends on what you define as “G Scale” Shawn. In the UK we have a number of threads that have led to what appears to be a healthy Garden railway scene here. Those who run on 45 mm with DC or DCC have come mainly from those who’s in to the hobby in all probability began with an LGB/Euro NG starter set and progressed from there. There is also a healthy Gauge 1/Standard Gauge scene here that shares that track gauge but is predominantly live steam operation. During the early 2000’s there was a very favourable exchange rate of 2$ to the £1 and no import taxes that coupled with “box shifters”, like St Aubin, led to an influx of 45 mm gauge track powered US outline stock being imported and getting a toe hold and following here.

On the other hand over the past 40 years our own little thing called 16 mm scale has grown as a starting point, originally exclusively with a 32 mm track gauge. Most of that product was live steam in operation with some battery powered. However the manufacturers of this product noted that there were a lot of 45 mm gauge lines here, courtesy of those who came in via the LGB “G” route, and stared making their product readily re-gaugeable to 45 mm to gain more sales and better scales of economy. That also appealed to the more parochial amongst us. You then get the crossover that has occured in the UK hobby where the term “16 mm” has almost become as corrupted as “G” and the 16 mm NGM appears the all inclusive dominant force it is - at least if you run battery or live steam.

You run what can afford or what your addiction compels you to (http://www.largescalecentral.com/externals/tinymce/plugins/emoticons/img/smiley-wink.gif)I doubt we have any more gardens per capita than in the US. And a lot of the ones we do have are not much bigger than postage stamps in the “new build” estates that have proliferated in the past 40 years. What we do have is a reasonably healthy (courtesy of our NHS), well remunerated, growing population of retired persons who benefit from not only state provided pensions but well funded occupational one of the “defined benefit”, not annuity, variety and sizable amounts of equity in their properties. There is a fair amount of disposable income to lavish on those very discretionary purchases over a fair proportion of the population. Come along to one of our shows and check the age range. The long term threats to the hobby here are - the hollowing out of middle income positions by automation and AI, the ending of that culture of generous defined benefit pensions with that of annuities (half the benefit for the same investment) and the reversion to 30/70 split in favour of rental properties over the up till now 70/30 in favour of owner occupier. Well, I’m glad I got that off my chest - back to the Steelers/Pats game. I loves my FN3 D&RGW and my “Football”.

#55

you definitely do have more gardens… while most people may have a “back yard”, but it’s often landscaping, not matching what the English call a garden. By the way I married into a very British family, and have lots of pictures of their homes, and one thing that is always pointed out is the garden.

#56

Did you mean one of these ? Sorry I could not resist Greg. I hope it plays.

Oh, and I live in a house that looks a bit like ones featured but they took the thatch off 60 years ago (http://www.largescalecentral.com/externals/tinymce/plugins/emoticons/img/smiley-sealed.gif)

I think this thread may now be considered to have have well and truly drifted way out to sea.

Edit - Oh, And I nearly forgot, we all speak like Dick van Dyke’s character in Mary Poppins - Gawd bless ya guvnah, scuse me while I gah ahp the eppels and peaars to sees me uncle Ned. Tarrah then ! (http://www.largescalecentral.com/externals/tinymce/plugins/emoticons/img/smiley-sealed.gif)

Greg, I’m just having fun not poking fun.

#57

Max Winter said:

Did you mean one of these ? Sorry I could not resist Greg. I hope it plays.

Oh, and I live in a house that looks a bit like ones featured but they took the thatch off 60 years ago (http://www.largescalecentral.com/externals/tinymce/plugins/emoticons/img/smiley-sealed.gif)

I think this thread may now be considered to have have well and truly drifted way out to sea.

Edit - Oh, And I nearly forgot, we all speak like Dick van Dyke’s character in Mary Poppins - Gawd bless ya guvnah, scuse me while I gah ahp the eppels and peaars to sees me uncle Ned. Tarrah then ! (http://www.largescalecentral.com/externals/tinymce/plugins/emoticons/img/smiley-sealed.gif)

Greg, I’m just having fun not poking fun.

Added the infamous “S”

#58

It’s dead just like vinyl records and turntables…oh wait, those are making a come back, next thing you know we’ll be wearing bell bottoms and leisure suits again !(https://www.largescalecentral.com/externals/tinymce/plugins/emoticons/img/smiley-wink.gif)

#59

Yes Max!

Wife’s last name Martin, where her dad grew up, family house in Ridley, UK

#60

I always wondered why G scale does so much better in the UK etc. Is it because they run smaller layouts with smaller trains that tend to be more affordable?

Strictly speaking, the garden railways in the UK are seldom 1:20th scale. Most are 2’ gauge using 32mm O gauge track, and are 1:19th scale. (Yes, I know, what a nit-pick!) Many other live steam tracks are 1:30.5 (10mm:ft) or 1/32nd scale. However, the latter are gauge-1 track, so they handle 1:20 trains too.