Wendell,
back almost two years ago, a certain marketting manager for a now, non-operating distributor for a well known brandname, made a comment on MLS, in response to a statement from me, as to the future of the caricature F7. I believed that the the loco was history. The response from the individual was, watch this space and in regards to the Forney loco, then get them now while you still can.
My conclusion to this was that LGBoA had made a decision to rerun the F7 (in China. Remember the Genesis drive trucks are based on the F7 drive blocks) and a decision to stop production of the Forney loco. To me, the decision, at that time, was continued direct competition with the other two standard gauge manufacturers. Remember also that Marklin sales were never very comfortable with their Gauge 1 American outline range. Even heavy promotion on the last Superman movie did not boost sales. Is it any wonder that Marklin might leave the American prototype outline sales to Aristo and USA Trains and concentrate on the insatiable European market that they know best. With the current limited production available, it is foolish to split production when there is a healthy existing market for Euro prototype. For Marklin, it is back to core production, with possible expansion once production is up to speed.
I, personally, do not see much enthusiasm from Germany in satisfying the American appetite for the product. Like Hitler destroyed bridges over the Rhine to halt the movement of allied troops into Germany, so bridges have been destroyed across the Atlantic, severing the America marketplace from its supply base. Who destroyed those bridges is dependant on what camp you are in, but the result is exemplified by the empty shelves in stores. LGB, as a brandname, will not survive the cessation in production and loss of consumer confidence/sales in the United States. It is a godsend for Aristo-Craft and USA Trains, as unavailability of product has caused consumers to switch allegiance and the absence of the once famous marque has taken the name out of the marketplace and so new consumers to the hobby do not experience the awe that we once all felt when seeing rows of big red boxes on shelves. LGBoA saw this coming and switched allegiance to Piko. Piko, no doubt took exception to the connotations that their distributor in the States represented the name of their competition. No wonder LGBoA was put out to pasture, not to be fattened up for market, but to be forgotten about. I also do not believe that Piko sales in the United States will be 'healthy' as the American market is as parochial as the European market is and sales of American outline in Europe would mimic European prototype sales in the United States. The growth of Accucraft, Bachmann, Aristo-Craft and USA Trains shows what the American consumers want and Piko is not going to deliver on that.
Further to above, I do not believe that Piko will see healthy sales in the States, as many remember the well-made, but crude East German product from many years ago. Piko sales in the States are dependant on overcoming consumer resistance, 'innapropriate' prototype and distributor enthusiasm. Piko will, unfortunately, always be a niche player in the U.S. market, relying on European sales to support it. Maybe Marklin also sees itself in this market position, as well and is not prepared to sacrifice its domestic consumer market base in the short term.
