The St. Aubin’s Ad in the most recent GR indicates 2012 as when the rights expire. The ad doesn’t specify a source for that, so take it for informational purposes only. At this point, I think it’s safe to say Marklin and LGBoA/Silvergate aren’t going to play ball. As with all contract disputes, who’s responsible for the breakdown depends on which side you talk to. (Hint: it’s never “our” fault.) The truth sits somewhere in between.
So here’s a possible (very speculative) scenario…
Assumptions:
- Marklin has to take time to figure out how to work all this new material into their existing production lines, and/or needs time to expand facilities in order to accommodate the new product line.
- Marklin’s experience with the US market has been underwhelming to say the least.
- Marklin has a good grasp on how LGB’s market share in the US has been deteriorating over the past decade.
- Marklin’s sales strength lies in the EU.
Given those assumptions, it stands to reason that Marklin has decided that they can afford to wait things out while they get the rest of their ducks in a row. They don’t stand to make enough money in the US market, given the tap-dancing that may be required, so instead will focus on the more lucrative EU market where they already know the territory quite well. Three years isn’t a long time to wait in the grand scheme of things. The US market has not seen new LGB products in over 2 years, and there seems to be no tangible negative effect on the market. LGB is still being bought and sold on e-bay and through existing dealer stock. I can see this dwindling a bit over the next few years, but that creates scarcity. What better circumstances to return triumphantly to the table?
Is this a risky move for Marklin? Perhaps, but it’s a very calculated risk. The LGB brand doesn’t directly compete with Bachmann, Aristo, and the others. Folks who buy those brands left the “predominantly-LGB” fold years ago. LGB has always maintained its niche, and served it well. The closest brand that looks like it could tap into LGB’s niche is Piko. From what I’ve seen so far, they make a good product, but I don’t see them permanently stealing away customers. They’re too new to gain any kind of reputation in that short period of time, and is unlikely to have anywhere near the breadth of product as LGB is currently producing for the EU. If anything, the market will become less brand-centric, and both will do well. As we’ve seen expressed on these (and other) pages, LGB aficionados are incredibly loyal. When the products arrive back on the shelves in US hobby shops, the dollars will be there.
Unfortunately for current LGB owners, service gets lost in the shuffle, and that’s unfortunate. But hey, lack of parts isn’t a problem limited to bankrupt manufacturers. As many can attest, welcome to the club.
Later,
K