Is this supposed to be a NEW phenomena? We have suspected for years that the bulk of potential buyers for LS is aging and not being replaced in numbers sufficient to maintain the hobby at its present levels. I would sure like to see demographics on large-scale model railroad product purchasers. But absent the cooperation of the major manufacturers we can only guess. Obviously the sheer amount space required for this endeavor is in itself enough to limit it as a hobby of great growth. In every major western nation of the world the demographics reveal an aging population. Just in replacement numbers alone, there is probably not much long-term growth to be found in the hobby. But beyond that, how many younger people really have a strong sentimental connection with trains? I suspect not many at all. And, of course, there is the relatively high cost of this hobby, plus the large amount of time and raw physical work required of those of us who build these things whether inside or outdoors. But these are all aspects of the hobby we have known for some time.
So I suppose what we are really discussing here is the ongoing interest of those already in the hobby or likely to enter as seen in their purchases. I have suspected for a long time that the market for LS has to be close to the saturation point. On the other hand I have never seen so many potential choices at a reasonable cost as I have in the last few years. I am not too concerned because I don’t see those purchasing options going away soon. I don’t see the manufacturers suddenly deciding to discontinue research and development of new models or related products either. Certainly there has been nothing out there to support the notion that all of a sudden our choices will become drastically limited–assuming, of course, our economy does not go into a total tailspin. I don’t really see that, either.
What I do see is that the members who post on these various LS forums are becoming increasingly more sophisticated about the many aspects of LS and thus are probably not approaching what new choices become available with the same level of enthusiasm as would have been the case a decade ago or even less. I see a LOT of highly talented modelers out there with layouts and rolling stock that are nothing short of astounding. Similarly I see descriptions of operations that are far more sophisticated than anything I could have conceived a few years ago. And the general tendency toward achieving the prototypical has only increased. Maybe too much so in that it can be intimidating to those just entering the hobby. But that is just a marker of a hobby that is now maturing. Apparently it is inevitable.
So perhaps we LS enthusiasts have become somewhat jaded about the hobby. Is that not to be expected? The term “malaise” is a little over the top. As I see it, our hobby is not hurting so much as it is maturing. That is not such a bad thing. Like any other aspect of the economy, ours is a product that still must be sold to the general public. Most have never even heard of it. As others have pointed out, this is an endeavor that dovetails well with gardening. Perhaps that is the best way to sell it.
I have never seen myself as one to promote the hobby. That is not my mission in life. But I surely love to show what I have off. People who never thought they would find an interest in railroads certainly find an interest in THIS one. And I am sure that is a story which repeats itself in many a garden railroad where the general public has some access. I myself never thought of myself as a railroader or a model-maker of any kind. Fifteen years ago had someone suggested I would get into GARDEN model railroading I would have never taken them seriously. But I did. And I did it WITHOUT the benefit of a local garden railroad club or ANY railroad club for that matter. And I did it without the benefit of any of these forums, none of which existed at the time. Nor did I have a substantial budget with which to work. I still don’t. In fact I am still not a railroader–not really. Nor am I much of a model-builder. I certainly have not done anything much in the way of rolling stock modification in all the years I have been involved in LS. I do build some structures, but am hardly an expert at that either. But I am definitely an LS enthusiast. Somehow I sold myself on it. If it can happen to me, way up here in the middle of Nowhere, Alaska, it most certainly can happen to anyone. General malaise? I think not. It is only self-limiting oneself and one’s hobby to suggest such things.
