Large Scale Central

General Malaise in Largescale

General Discussion
#1

It would seem to me that a general feeling of apathy is settling on the largescale market. We have been inundated for the last few years with new releases from all the major manufacturers, leading to a feeling of malaise towards the market.

The last release from Bachmann that stirred the imagination was the 38-ton Shay and the Heisler. The Shay was welcomed with open arms as many were not in the hobby when the original 36-ton was released. Releases since then have hardly gotten the heart rate rising. The railtruck, the saddle/side tank Porters, well we all have one or two but just how practical are they? The 3-truck, well what can be said other than its quick and timely demise. The K-27 was heartily welcomed by the 1:20.3 crowd, but I do not feel received the attention and praise that the manufacturers had hoped. The new colour schemes on the American 4-4-0 received little attention and the diminutive Davenport has received basically no consumer support. The latest release Mallet is available on the Continent and the only thing outstanding seems to be the lack of enthusiasm expressed by the market. Are we immune to new releases? It does not take a crystal ball to predict very few new releases, from the company, in the coming two years.

Similarly with the other manufacturers. Aristo and USA Trains have flooded the market to saturation point. What for future viability in the hobby? We can only purchase so much stock and current financial limitations will certainly curtail new purchases for many. Specialist scales like 1/32 scale, will always find support as their devotees are fanatics. However, more ‘mundane’ scales such as 1/29 and 1/22.5 are seen as toy scales and consumers more fickle and more responsive to any market crisis.

I feel that the next few years will see little new release stock being available, as manufacturers consolidate existing tooling.

#2

Bachmann.
I think with the on going stuff ups Bachmann have been incorporating in their models lately, it is only to be expected LS consumers will be a bit wary until any new model Bachmann makes has been thoroughly tested by experts in the field before they get the nod.
We wait with baited breath for the Mallet.
I hope it is OK.

USAT & AC
That’ll teach em for not making models in proper scale proportions then. :wink:

#3

Tim,
I believe you are right on the nose. Unfortunately large scale is NOT a sustainable market. It is far to small and far too fragmented. I am not sure weather its apathy, fragmentation or just lack of bodies, but large scale as a whole is not growing. In spite of what you may read on the web or see in a magazine most people in large scale still have small radius curves and still are happy to run trains around in circles. The people you see on the net are the exception not the rule. I talk to people every day who are in large scale but are not on the net and many don’t even own computers. That is the real demographic of large scale. Larger locomotives and more modern rolling stock simply do not sell.
My opinions may be different than and are no reflection of those of my employer. (Aristocraft) We are working on several new products, but so not expect any large locos or rolling stock, there is simply no viable market for them.

George

#4
George Adams said:
Tim, I believe you are right on the nose. Unfortunately large scale is NOT a sustainable market. It is far to small and far too fragmented. I am not sure weather its apathy, fragmentation or just lack of bodies, but large scale as a whole is not growing. In spite of what you may read on the web or see in a magazine most people in large scale still have small radius curves and still are happy to run trains around in circles. The people you see on the net are the exception not the rule. I talk to people every day who are in large scale but are not on the net and many don't even own computers. That is the real demographic of large scale. Larger locomotives and more modern rolling stock simply do not sell. My opinions may be different than and are no reflection of those of my employer. (Aristocraft) We are working on several new products, but so not expect any large locos or rolling stock, there is simply no viable market for them.

George


Out of the mouths of babes eh??? Metaphorically speaking of course.

Thank you George.

I guess the WOW!!! factor is really irrelevant after all!!!

#5

Tim,

Good analogy. I think the release of such railroad specific equipment as the K-27 brings its own baggage. I believe the Mallet will find a broader audience. Right now the Mallet, the Davenport, the 3 truck Shay and the K-27 all have the unknown DCC electronics hanging over them, whether this is a real problem or not. To some degree, I think this attribute of pushing the electronics, contributed to the downfall of that German Company, what was their name?

The basic consumer had a great advocate in Dave Goodson and then the “powers that be” pissed him off and now many are going to sit back and let somebody else buy this unknown, untested stuff and the rest of us, well we’ll see how it holds up and shakes out.

Good time to sit back, work on models and save your 'Dollars American".

Fluff only goes so far and videos really have never sold much.

#6

Tim I wonder if Bachmann’s flatter sales responce doesnt have more to do with the fact that every recent model has been frought with some malidy or another, from the undersized screws on the railtruck, to the sound board issue on the 3 truck Shay, to the loose counterbalance/circuit board circus with the K, I think its just people are not going to get excited anymore if they know theres a good chance theres always going to be some sort of drama involved with it, they’re simply worn out by it all.

On another topic I griped Bmann could avoid almost all of this if they simply bothered to actually field test there latest prototypes prior to production, work out the bugs and offer a final product that runs well out of the box and doesnt need a 3 page print out of “How To Fix X, Y, and Z” from Dave, maybe we’de get a little more excited, its absolutly exhausting whenever a new product hits the market and we wait 3 weeks to a month to see what the hell is wrong with it, and them argue about whether repair X or repair Y is whats really needed only to have the maker say there’s nothing wrong until they get so many complaints and repair returns that theres no way to avoid the truth, and these are NOT cheap toys, the dam K is $700 %^$#*& dollars, thats alot of coin for a product thats got issues right out of the box. Sorry Bachmann but thay’ve got NO ONE TO BLAME BUT THEMSELVES. They should KNOW that, and sheesh how hammerheaded can they be if they dont. The market is not a bunch of mindless goldfish ready to feed on whatever fishfood gets thrown in our rather small bowl.

LGB learned that the hard way and look what happened to them. Aristo seams to have learned there lesson and now wont release anything hopefully until there sure its a good product, even if it means they say new product X’s release is summer, but we dont get it till January. If the product was held up while some glitch was resolved, then kudos to Lewis, saves us being the Beta testbed, The problem with Bmanns current policy is that you screw with enough people and they are simply NOT going to buy your product no matter how cool it looks. I think Bachmann had better get its QA act together before Barry and Dave decide to retire for real. Without Dave to diagnose and Barry to offer a fix, Bachmann may really find themselves up a certain creek without a paddle because there will be no one to offer that outside fix.

I’m pleading for Bachmann to step up and work on there new products prior to release so we can avoid all this drama, even if that means they are delayed in release. If we get a better product, then its time well spent.

Tim, given the sour economy, I also doubt we’ll see new product also, but this is the time for all the manufacturers to go over their existing product line and work out any of the known bugs in them. I dont know what else to say, but to me its not so much malaise, its exhaustion.

#7

I came to the same conclusion that George just stated over 4 years ago when I took a serious look at one of the large scale manufacturers that were on the block at the time. The demographic is aging rapidly and there aren’t enough younger people coming up to replace those that age out. My research was limited because Klambake was about the only source of data and what they were willing to share was limited. The major players like Bachmann, USA and Aristo would not release any sales or market data. This is understandable, but it makes an independent analysis of the market nearly impossible.

My conclusion was that there was, at the time, 8-15 years of market growth left. After that, the market would shrink, slowly at first and then rapidly until it stabilized at a fraction of it’s present size. That conclusion was arrived at before the current economic conditions which may push more people out of the hobby sooner and keep many from joining. As a result of my research, I decided not to move forward with the purchase of a marginally profitable business that would be heavily financed. The debt service would eat too much of the profit, and when the market began to shrink the debt service would cause failure.

Bachmann has the luxury of smaller scales to absorb the losses in large scale. Aristo and USA need to be profitable in large scale. Something I’m sure they are finding very difficult to achieve these days.

So, I don’t know if I would call it Malaise, but rather that the demographic has not changed and the longer a person is in the scale the less they look to purchase. Many already have much more than they need. Sure a new K would be nice, but do I need it?

Ric’s conversion of 1:22 & 1:24 cars to 1:20 is a good example of someone who has been in the market for a long time that has a need, but is not buying new. He found an inexpensive way to bring older cars up to the larger scale. He had a need, but rather than fill it with new cars a lot less money was spent on supplies and detail parts.

#8

Well, I have been considering selling out what’s left of my goofy gauge stuff after peddling quite a bit of it last summer. The weather has been tuff on running outside and now it’s been freezing for a couple days even during the daylight hours also one of the huge cedar trees busted up my table top layout again dumping very big branches on the track and the layout. BUMMER … My adventure into On30 might have been the cure as I had plenty of room inside to do than but now that thought is fading out too. Just don’t feel like making scenery and all that. So of what I have laid down to run On30, I took it up and put down my Lionel stuff that had not seen the light of day for many years. I have a couple of good old ZW’s for power. Gee it’s really phun operating all of the accessories and running trains too. So it looks like I’ll be loading up eBay for some time peddling lots of brand new Bachmann On30 stuff and a small bit of used stuff. At least the On30 engines ran better than the goofy gauge engines did for the most part.
Hello Lionel, happy days are here again. Oh yea, the commercial, if anyone likes to do some trading Lionel for On30, step right up.

Cheers, the old fardt in Ore-Gun

#9

I don’t know if any of you have noticed, but we’re on the edge of a major recession or possibly worse. the Fed cut interests rates today to a hair above zero, the lowest they’ve ever been. If sales are down, might it be that and not Bachmann’s failure to field test? Or some pubic unhappiness with 1:29? Seriously, have you checked the stock market over the last two years? There are several trillion dollars that just vanished. Some of that might have gone to spending on trains, no? Especially by retirees, who are really hurt by the declining markets.

I’m not 50 yet, and when I run our trains outside, kids come running over, neighbors stop and chat, the kids all say “dad can we have a train like this,” and people tell me the Wash Post should do a story. And all we have is a little 2-300 foot layout that’s mostly–yes, I know it’s awful to contemplate–a roundy round. People LOVE the thing. There’s no lack of public interest. Down on the DC mall, the Botanical garden runs a train and there are long lines on the weekend. There is plenty of interest.

But it’s not cheap, and making bigger and bigger engines doesn’t make it cheaper. I really like what Aristo offers, and what USAT offers, but even though got the bug, I’ve got kids to put through college and I just can’t spend 5-700 bucks on a toy train. When people visit our layout, you know what trains they seem to like the most? The LGB Starter set locos and the Eggliner. They’re cute and they look manageable and sturdy. That’s what gets people started. I keep thinking aristo should put resources into the 0-4-0 and the little critter, not the consolidation, even though I want a consolidation myself.

And since hobby stores are closing, more and more the public face of the hobby is internet sites like this, which are often great–I’ve learned a ton for which I’m extremely thankful to all of you–but are also full of incomprehensible bashing of this and that manufacturer. Crabby guys denouncing other people’s choices or snarking on the “out of the box” crowd. Seriously, think about it. A guy wants to buy his kids a train for christmas and he makes the mistake of asking a question here, and the thread will turn into two pages of denouncing Stanley Ames and telling him that code 332 is the devil and he should build it all himself in 1:20:3 (which means nothing to him) the way we used to do it, back in the day, and weird nonsensical stuff about “marvin.” Hobby shops used to be the face of the hobby. Now it’s places like this, and the face is wrinkly and grouchy and critical. The entry point for the hobby is different than it used to be, and cliquish forums are just off putting.

It’s great that Bob doesn’t censor this site, but I remember coming here a year or two ago, when I was just trying to put an old LGB starter set around a small pond, and thinking “what the %^$?” The internet changed everything, and one thing it changed is the way people come into a hobby at the entry level.

Aristo has a good idea running a forum, although of necessity it’s a very different kind of forum than this. A set of “how to get started” pages would be great at that site. But most of the forums would make most beginners run for the hills

#10

You know, I just love, sitting here, reading how my railroad hobby and all my 1/29th scratchbuilds are all just ““Mundane and a toylike scale””, because I want to model modern diesels and modern trains, instead of steam and narrow gauge… You couldn’t just have left it as the manufactuers and their products, you just had to slam basically anyone not modeling steam and narrow gauge…

But, then again, there was only one dimension of rail separation for narrow gauge railroads too… NOT… There were a few different narrow "“gauges’”… But, I suppose that 1/20.3 is the only ““true”” narrow gauge… Anything larger, or smaller are just ““toylike””

I guess that I should just uninstall my ““Railop”” program, and forget about working my railroad as a functioning railroad, with a purpose to move freight for a reason, because it’s 1/29th scale and it’s toylike… 3 years of planning and building right down the toilet, cause my scale is ““Toylike and Mundane””…

Heaven help this model industry… With attitudes like that, we will all wind up, back in our own little worlds, because, if we’re not into the ““proper”” scale, then we’re not real model railroaders… It’s nothing but a shame…

#11

Andy, You’ve got the picture! Some peoples hobby is really about putting down other peoples hobby choices.

#12
Andy Clarke said:
You know, I just love, sitting here, reading how my railroad hobby and all my 1/29th scratchbuilds are all just ""Mundane and a toylike scale"", because I want to model modern diesels and modern trains, instead of steam and narrow gauge... You couldn't just have left it as the manufactuers and their products, you just had to slam basically anyone not modeling steam and narrow gauge...

But, then again, there was only one dimension of rail separation for narrow gauge railroads too… NOT… There were a few different narrow "“gauges’”… But, I suppose that 1/20.3 is the only ““true”” narrow gauge… Anything larger, or smaller are just ““toylike””

I guess that I should just uninstall my ““Railop”” program, and forget about working my railroad as a functioning railroad, with a purpose to move freight for a reason, because it’s 1/29th scale and it’s toylike… 3 years of planning and building right down the toilet, cause my scale is ““Toylike and Mundane””…

Heaven help this model industry… With attitudes like that, we will all wind up, back in our own little worlds, because, if we’re not into the ““proper”” scale, then we’re not real model railroaders… It’s nothing but a shame…


Depends.
You use 332 brass or stainless?
Ever calculate how tall that is in real life?
Ever see real rail?

Scale to gauge.
Using #1 gauge track, 1:32 works out closest to 4’8-1/2".
Metre gauge is about 1:22.5.
3’ is 1:20.
3’6" is 1:24.
7/8n2 is 2’.

I don’t see a problem, but you and others seem to make it a problem.

I do get a kick out of opening GR and seeing some beautifully detailed diseasemal, so obvously on 332 rail, I just turn the page.

Of course, there is that wonderfully prototypical coupler, with a swinging jaw and a huge coil spring slapped alongside it.

But, that’s not the real issue, is it?

The issue is gross consumerism, gotta have more, more, more, and have it now!

Latest and greatest!

Mandated crap!

Enema-Rays!

Nobody is satisfied with what they have.
Nobody is happy.
Very few spend the time to personalize and actually be proud of what they have accomplished.
Throw-away society, and morons who try to dupe the public into thinking something that is NOT right actually is.

Nice to see the cretins lining up for their gruel and slop.

#13

I think it is fun to build/bash/modify or scratch build. That’s where the fun in this hobby lies for me. I too am a roundy roundy guy, to each his own, I say. One saying someone gave to me was guys who practice ‘checkbook railroading’. I remember listening to some guys at Martys talking about their roomful of trains that they had never gotten out of the box. I don’t have much , but use what I have. Make what I want, weather the new stuff and ‘just do it’.

#14
Jerry Barnes said:
I think it is fun to build/bash/modify or scratch build. That's where the fun in this hobby lies for me. I too am a roundy roundy guy, to each his own, I say. One saying someone gave to me was guys who practice 'checkbook railroading'. I remember listening to some guys at Martys talking about their roomful of trains that they had never gotten out of the box. I don't have much , but use what I have. Make what I want, weather the new stuff and 'just do it'.
Amen Brother Jerry!

-Brian

#15

It’s often hard to accept other people’s ways of having fun.

#16

Andy and Jack,
exactly where in my posting did I slam the end-user. If you read what I said then my obvious intent is that we are so bombarded with new releases that we have become immune to what is offered to us. At one time, the manufacturers would offer us locomotives at the rate of one every two years, at most. Basically, for the last fifteen years or more, B’mann offered nothing new in rolling stock. Along came 1:20.3 scale and the emphasis was shifted away from the traditional market to this scale. Now we have come to expect new releases all the time and so have become blaise as to what is offered. It has gotten nothing to do with narrow-gauge or steam or diesels in any of the large scales.

                  Your responses, I suppose,  are par for the course,  as there is always some shill who feels the moral need to support the manufacturers.  Is this fear or blind loyalty?  Manufacturers would be better placed,  financially,  to offer new product when the time was right and not just because a consumer expects something new.  The last two years has seen B'mann release firstly,  the 3-truck Shay,  then last year the K-27 and now,  this Christmas,  the articulated.     Each locomotive has entailed massive capital expenditure to reach the marketting stage.  This is capital which is not available for other projects in the future.  What next Christmas and the Christmas after that? 

                  I agree with Dave's comments on consumerism.  When is enough really enough?  Many,  unwittingly become collectors.  Human beings are hunter/gatherers.  We practice our ancient instincts with our hobbies,  by accumulating far more than we could conceivably use.  The manufacturers pander our innate 'needs' with constant new releases.  What happens when something new arrives?  First reaction is "What's next?"

Jerry,
it is not simply the aging demographic which is starving largescale, but the lack of experience. A large percentage of largescale hobbyists simply do not know how to alter their ‘out of the box’ items. They rely on the manufacturer to pander to them. The abundance of new items means that few see the need to alter or kitbash anything and so the skill base level declines. In a recent posting, Lewis Polk admitted that he would not supply unpainted kits, as the market will not sustain them. This is a reflection on the future trends in the hobby.

#17

Tim,

I’m sorry you are so tense, but you can un-wad your panties. I wasn’t referring to you or your comments at all!

#18

And, I recall when Bochman has undec kits.
Nobody could get rid of them.
Dealers had a plethora of the things, they were in the Warehouse in Philly, bad idea.
So, Philly has a Phire Sale, suddenly pholks want then.
So, a whole new run.
I would bet there are a whole lot of the new kits sitting on shelves…

They listened on the Vulcan, but rest assured, that one will come back again.
This time with an Ames Super Socket.

I don’t mind picking up something broken or missing parts, as I will fix it.

But the average consumer?

I am still running Version 2 Bochman Bug Maulers, albeit with BBT chassis.

Three or four of them, at any rate.

I took an old AHM/Rivarrosi 2-8-0 I had bought new in 1968, I think, and re-powered it a year ago, just to see if I could still do it.
It runs better, smoother, and quieter than new!

I sell a LOT of diseasemal power bricks to certain folks for scratchbuilding.
Not too many people do that anymore, rather scream for the manufacturer to satisfy their instant gratification.

Plug-n-Play is just a symptom of the disease.

Nobody wants to “do” anymore.

#19
Jack Barton said:
Tim,

I’m sorry you are so tense, but you can un-wad your panties. I wasn’t referring to you or your comments at all!


So, what were you referring to?
Just lobbing a grenade into the discussion to see what damage you could do?

You are nothing more than an internet terrorist.
Nobody made any comment for you to pick on so you invented one.
Priceless.

#20

Tim, When you tell me that my ““scale”” is mundane and toylike, then that’s slamming anyone who models in that scale… It must be nice, to have manufacturers that model to your exact scale, with the equipment that you want… Show me anyone that really had modern railroad equipment on the market that was 1/32 nd scale, and didn’t cost above 500 bucks for an engine… Lionel tried, with a GP-20, and that failed to take off… LGB came out with a F-7, in 1/24th scale… MTH just now , started with the 1/32nd scale… OF course, if you had a gazillion bucks to throw away on a single engine, then you could buy 1/32 brass… So, I went for the 1/29th scale equipment, because, it was what was available…

The problem is, everyone wants to bash and downgrade everyone else’s scale and type of modeling… There is no ““Comradery”” anymore… It’s my scale is better than your scale, cause I’m more ““accurate””…

I have no problem with people who model 1/20.3, 1/22.5, 1/24, 1/29 or 1/32, because, it’s a hobby, that we all share… That also goes for the Z, N, HO, ON30, O-27, or S scale, and my apologies, if I left out a scale…

I happen to be a model railroader and I like to share my experiences with fellow model railroaders, of which I have met a great many wonderful people… They might not model diesel, they might not model my exact scale, but they can run thier equipment on my railroad anytime they want, cause we are all in this hobby together…

I am quite sure the intent of your topic was to direct it towards the products being made by the manufacturers and the current and future market availibility… But, when you address certain “scales” as toylike and mundane, that hits the individual modeler that models in that scale as mundane and toylike…

And, I’m did not respond to this topic as supporting any manufacturer, I’m supporting what I happen to be modeling…