My take on things:
I don’t put a whole lot of stock in those who say the hobby is rapidly declining. I’ve been hearing that from when I was a kid. “Enjoy it now, because when you get to be older, no one will be making trains.” Here I am, some 30 years later, and there’s more choice in all the scales than there ever has been. If the HO stuff that’s available today was around when I was in high school, I probably would not have gotten out of HO. If On30 had been around when I was in high school, I probably wouldn’t have gotten into HO. Those of us in our 30s, 40s, and 50s will keep the hobby alive for our lifetime. Whether subsequent generations pick it up, who knows, but “they” said “my” generation wouldn’t be remotely interested. I see no waning in the attraction of trains to the kids my daughter’s age. Heck, she quickly mastered the Playmobil R/C train I gave her for her 3rd birthday.
I think the lack of gangbuster support for recent releases has everything to do with a narrowing of focus. We no longer buy locomotives simply because we have to just to have something that looks like what we want. We have choices in terms of scale, era, standard or narrow gauge, etc. Aristo-Craft and USA Trains can release whatever they want, I’m not going to buy it. Nothing against the product, it’s just not eastern narrow gauge. Likewise, Bachmann can release whatever it wants, and the modern diesel guys aren’t going to touch it. The large scale pool has been divided into swimming lanes. Some don’t care where they swim, so long as they get their exercise. Others have their favorite lanes and stick to them. The maturation of the hobby has–in a way–contributed to a bit of a slowdown. I also think that we’ve become accustomed to new releases, and take them a bit more in stride than we used to. I think the excitement’s still there. It manifests itself in the occasional spirited discussion here and there. I also think there’s something to be said for the notion that wanting something is far more emotional an experience than finally having it. When we do finally get the latest and greatest, many of us sit it on the shelf before we even have time to get to it.
I also think saturation has been an issue. While it’s cool to see some of the models that are coming out, I think it’s counterproductive for three or four different manufacturers to all produce the same one. How many people have the 20’ diameter curves needed for a Big Boy to justify three versions? Are there really that few “popular” locomotives where such overlap is essential? We’ve got three Big Boys, 3 GG-1s, 2 SP Daylights… Where’s the N&W class J? Where’s the bread-and-butter 2-8-0 or 4-6-0 in either 1:32 or 1:29? It reminds me of the old baseball adage… How do you win? Hit the ball to where they ain’t (or something to that effect). You want to sell trains, sell something that’s not on the market already.
As for the future? I know the R/C crowd will probably burn radio antennas in my front yard for saying this, but I think DCC and that level of customizable control is where we are headed. My generation “gets” it. There’s barely an apparatus in our houses that doesn’t require some level of programming. Sitting down with a new locomotive and customizing the sounds, lights, and that kind of stuff is no different to us than setting the ringtone on our phone, or wallpaper/slideshow on our computer. It’s part of the fun. (Heck, even my landline has customizable ringtones, and yes, I programmed them.) I don’t see DCC and battery R/C being mutually exclusive at all. Instead, I see those two worlds becoming more and more similar to the point where I’d expect in 5 or 10 years, the major DCC players will offer battery R/C versions of their controls and vice versa.
As for the models themselves, I do think we’ll see a bit of a slowdown in terms of new releases, simply because there has to be time to sell the models between releases, and with a smaller, more focused pool of customers, it will take longer to clear the inventory. At the same time, I don’t think the consumer will really notice the slowdown because of the variety that’s already available. There’s enough inventory on the market now to keep us quite fat and happy. I think we’ll see more emphasis on small run “boutique” cars that have a very finite, but rabid market. (An example would be a B&O “wagontop” box car. One wouldn’t expect to sell thousands of them, but the B&O fans will have to have at least three or four.)
I also see the prices climbing a bit, but I don’t necessarily see this as a negative. I think high prices or limited supply forces the modeler to focus more on what they enjoy running, as opposed to buying one of everything that comes out just because they can. When I look at some of the best-themed railroads that I’ve come across, they are mostly done by people who barely have two extra pennies to rub together. Because they have to scrimp and save for everything on the railroad, they are very selective and everything fits their “vision.” That’s a philosophy I try to keep in mind every time I see a new loco hit the streets. Yeah, it’d be cool to have, but would it have run on a rural Pennsylvania narrow gauge railroad?
Later,
K
Most of us have plenty of trains now and if they all stopped making them we would have enough to last us till the end.