Lets see how this goes over…
I once got into a rather interesting ‘debate’ over my contention that there are literally millions of American and Japanese alive today who would have never been born, if the A-bomb had not been used and Operation Olympic (the invasion of Japan) had taken place.
If FDR had not authorizing the Manhattan Project or the project had been severly delayed or a failure, the Invasion of Japan would have become a necessity given the bullheadedness of the Japanese military, even up to the bitter end, most of the leadership remained deadset against surrender under any conditions, even if it ment the destruction of their nation. In fact after the surrender, many high command officials commited suicide.
Japan was as a nation a massive armed camp, by 1945 all factories destroyed by bombing, had been dispursed to individual homes necessitating the widespread carpet and firebombings to knock out this “cottage industry” of arms production, which the entire nation was geared towards this, women were being trained to fight with bamboo sticks, children were being trained to roll under tanks with explosive packs on their backs, and plans were underway to build hundreds of small motorboats packed with explosives, human torpedoes to destoy landing craft and enemy ships, after Okinawa every remaining airplane was held in reserve, to be loaded with explosives for final Kamakaze missions during the invasion. Remember the Islamist learned their technics from studying the Japanese.
Okinawa was considered a preview of what kind of resistance US troops could expect to recieve on landing on the main islands, the casualty rates among the Japanese troops was almost 100%, the civilian casuaty rate was also horrendous at almost 90%, with many hurling themselves off the cliffs to avoid capture, but also many were killed in murder-suicides by their own troops. All this forebode a terrible scortched-earth bloodbath if and when Olympic began.
US troops who won the war in Europe, found instead of going home they were to be shipped to the Pacific for the forthcoming invasion, moral dropped tremendously on hearing this. Planners on the US side were projecting that to sucessfully occupy Japan would cost 100,000 US troops their lives, and 1,000,000 Japanese dead with a similar casualty rate for civilians, and could possibly take as long as 3 bloody years.
But FDR did authorize the Manhattan Project, and the Trinity test did work, Hiroshima and Nagasaki were bombed, thousand died, but remember many more died and greater damage was done in the repeated firebombings of Tokyo, Osaka and other cities than in either A-bomb shot. The A-bombs greatest effect was psychological on the leaders, particularly the Emporer Hirohito. When Hiroshima was bombed, the Japanese high command refused to consider surrender, even after the US issued notice that japan would be bombed one city after another until they did so ( a bluff, we only had enough to make 3 bombs including Trinity), they vowed to fight on the last man, woman and child, it wasnt until after Nagasaki was destroyed that Hirohito feared Tokyo was next, the notion of one plane-one bomb and that the US had hundred of B-29 planes its not hard to figure we had hundreds of these new bombs as well, Hirohito feared this and also greatly feared the end of the Imperial lineage, overruled his generals, and ordered the unconditional surrender of Japan, the fear of the bomb ended WW2.
In doing so, the bomb pre-empted the Olympic invasion, thousand of Americans and millions of Japanese are alive today, because their parents and grandparents were not killed in the invasion and occupaition of the Japanese mainland. Anyone who had relatives who fought in that theater and were slated to be in that battle on either side, should ponder their very existance, if the bomb had not been used, they might not have ever been born.
Anyway, thats my take on it, running for the fallout shelter now…