Large Scale Central

Will the Big Three manufacturers survive the economic challenges

General Discussion
#1

What is your view on this subject ? Have any of us seen actual hints of things to come ? We can all speculate, but are there any facts appearing ?

Can we as consumers, do anything to support our sources of hobby material ?

Should we be stockpiling anything against future shortages ?

This is NOT meant as an opportunity to do more bashing of our suppliers....so please, No BASHING.

What are you planning on purchasing in the coming months ?
Can you afford to purchase anything ?

Having to search for certain commonly used items, has led me to ask these questions. It seems that if you have some money to spend, you can’t find the items. Dealers can’t get them, and distributors have large back orders…or are not maintaining inventory.
Spring and Summer are the times that a lot of LS/Garden Railroaders purchase “Stuff”, so you would think it would be the time that inventories would be full…track for example.
I seem to have been able to barely find what I have needed…what is your experience ?

#2

Good topic. I think everyone will survive the times, especially those that produce in all scales and have good prices. Do I plan on buying anything? Probably not for a while unless I see a really good deal. Their are a few things I would like to get but not important, like a work caboose, passenger car and another box car (All HLW productes) I dont really need too much at the moment (I dont really have space on my layout) Anything that I need for my layout will be built with scrape materials, like structures. Still in my plans are a few buildings for my logging camp, a small passenger station and a fire tower.

Can we as consumers, do anything to support our sources of hobby material ? The best way to support our consumers is by buying products but I wont buy unless I get a good deal or the price is right. I would love to support these companies but some our overpriced. (no need to mention them) I would never spend more then $50 on rolling stock or much more then $200 for a loco. Too me I dont think anything is worth much more then that especially the type of products I am intrested in. Thats just me. I think I have done very well with my layout and saving money.
The key is not to sell overpriced products. Like HLW has great prices, durable and are very easy to kitbash. Thats why I am a hudge fan of HLW.

Should we be stockpiling anything against future shortages ? If I stock pile anything it would be engines for my current locos, but their will always be something available and for rolling stock you just have to take current ones and kitbash them into something you like or build from scratch.

#3

I tell you what I do predict good Padre.

A consumer backlash that will gravely affect those manufacturers that are perceived to be not doing the " Right Thing".
Either with the quality of their products, or the value for money in the products they do make.

#4

(http://www.planestupid.com/files/images/criswell.jpg)

The ghost of the legendary Criswell has channeled thru me, and Criswell Predicts: Bachmann: Will survive, but the drab economic situation will curtail future new releases. No expectations for any new items, expect reissues of pre-existing items with some minor upgrades, but keep in mind their ongoing QC issues may also have a much larger impact on their internal operations. We really dont know what percentage of defective product is being returned to Philly out of the total production run and what the experience will have on future purchases on those affected customers. Aristo: Also will survive but dont look for many new releases in the time being. New promised products will face release delays maybe we will see the PCC car but that is all I predict, the SG Connie will be offset for at least another year, and I foresee it has more to do with the loss of sales due to the crap-conomy that with any potential production problems, Criswell predicts lots of repaints. USA: Similar situation to Aristo, no more major releases until economy picks up. HLW: There primary business is industrial plastics, so as long as that business is good they will also survive, but again no new products, Criswell predicts they are trying to fill the niche left by the demise of LGB and that they will have some sucess doing this in the USA, given the loss of LGB/Marklin and the ongoing issues that the other makers might find eroding their customer base. Marklin/LGB: DOA for another year at the least, until this latest insolvency issue is resolved. As for me; I’m downsizing! selling off all my bigger size stuff and keeping my small engines and stock, so no new purchases for me regardless what makers offer us.

#5

It’s hard to say.
Bachmann can fall back on it’s less expensive N, HO, and On3.
If it keeps building large scale crap, production of that line will go away first.
USA will rely on Ro’s shop for a while. They’ll have to diversify and take on all scales, all brands.
Aristo will prolly be the first to go away.

Also remember the wealthier modelers will keep on buying.
It’s the average and little guy that will be affected in the upcoming months as thousands and thousands lose their jobs, due to the backlash out of Detroit.

#6

I may have to purchase something used, to fix another problem I have, but it will be used and for as little, cash outlay as possible. I do not plan on buying anything else in the near or distant future. I have now, more than I really want, or need, and I am looking to move what I don’t want to keep. If I do move some things it will give me some capital with which to work with, or trade, barter etc. Again even if I have a little capital I will purchase good/used. One of the unfortunate things i also did away with was my subscription to GRR mag. Just wasn’t something I felt i really was getting anything out of, I was using for sales and price guide but you can get that from the internet or a phone call. One other thing on the magazine I based my decision on is because of what I am reading here and on other forums of the bias in reporting things. What I can gather there is alot of censorship, and just in the past day or so watering down of articles, and or complete omissions of contributors feelings observations, or opinions. If you can’t tell the truth or you have to have something WATERED down it is against what I stand for. Anytime as I have always said when you tell the truth, someone is not going to like what you say and take ISSUE with it. Unfortunately that is the way of the world and really nothing new! “Say what you mean and mean what you say” if it’s the truth the people who are offended usually are at fault and should take they’re licks. If i am wrong in what I have said and it is proven to me to be that way, I will simply “apologize” say I was wrong and go on! I also did away with my cell phone too. I am cutting costs anywhere I can due to a personal situation here in my household which has put a strangle hold on anything that is NOT an absolute necessity. The Regal

#7

Some major medical expenses have impacted us yet again, so spending is still going to be limited for a while. I wasn’t planning on any big purchases anyway. I already have the locos I need, and enough rolling stock to get by with. I do want to get the TE Revolution eventually but probably won’t be able to afford it until next year, assuming no further hits to the budget.

There are a lot of things I want to do to fix up the patio area below the layout, such as replacing/repositioning the shed, building a raised viewing area, and permanent stairs up to the layout. But those will have to wait too.

Where I am spending money on the layout is for scratch-building supplies. Almost everything left to do on the layout is going to be built from scratch, which has been the plan all along. I have been making an effort to buy as much of these supplies as possible from the local hobby shop.

#8

I may buy some RC control stuff, but NO NEW TRAINS (with the exception of Thomas and his coaches), unless I stumble over some swell deals on a used small LGB loco!

I do think I’ll sell off what Bachmann Fn3 I have on hand.

I’m stocking up on things, but Nothing train-related!

Do I think they’ll make it? From where I’m at right now…I don’t care! (just being honest).

cale

#9

I like making stuff, so probably don’t care. I am not the type to buy everything to just have. I am sad that I have some stuff I have not run in a year or so. Must have too much! Sorta silly to get stuff and it just sit there in the box/shed and not be used. Looking at it is not that big of a kick for me.

JErry

#10
Fred Mills said:
What are you planning on purchasing in the coming months ? Can you afford to purchase anything ?
Planning? What is this planning of which you speak, comrade? The 555th Great Five-Year Plan? (We all know what happened to Nos. 1 through 554) :P As for affording ... :(

However, I hope this summer to move and enlarge my very basic oval that has sat unused for two years and bring it back to life.
This will require the acquisition of PT lumber and some track. It will also require free time … probably the hardest thing to get (father of IV, meet grandfather of IV; nope, it doesn’t get easier when you’re twice as old with half the energy).
I also hope to purchase RC gear for my Annie, following the gospel according to St Paul (Norton, that is). This will give me something to run on the IPP&W, subject to the permission of The Controller.

Longer term, I am keeping my eye on Bachmann’s Thomas line. It appears that it may be close to 1:32 or 10mm scale, i.e., won’t match the Lionel stuff, and images of the carriages and wagons look rather yummy (really British, instead of the Lionel approximation to nothing whatever).

Anyway, onward. I managed to do some land clearance in the yard today. Progress!

#11

I’ll continue to scratch build and bash. I could use some more rolling stock, but I see that the price for the Aristo-Delton trucks is up to $28. That kind of kills that for a good source.

I wish I had bought more of those AMS flatcars from Ridge Road when they were on sale. They make a great start for a boxcar.

I could use a few more cars, but right now I can do a good operating session with what I have, so there’s no pressing need to buy something.

I already have more locomotives than I need and I’m starting to think of selling one or two of them.

I really wish that there were some bigger drivers available to Barry - I’d love to have a BBT chassis with 4 48" drivers. I’ve decided that I like building on a good foundation, and the BBT drive is really nice.

My plan is to invite folks over to operate and spend money on beer and food to supplement the experience. :wink:

#12
Bruce Chandler said:
My plan is to invite folks over to operate and spend money on beer and food to supplement the experience. ;)
There you go. Beer and food. Two things we still make here. Stimulate the local economy ;) Ralph
#13

At the moment, I can’t afford to purchase anything more. :frowning: With the exception of the Aristo SG Consolidation, I don’t need any more locomotives. The only rolling stock I’m interested in is the USAT wooden reefers, of approximately 36 feet, in 1:29, lettered for tree fruit enterprises in the Wenatchee Valley of Washington State. There are two new Skookum cars, one a reefer, and one a TOFC, that are a must to have.

Right now, I am building my layout, the 4th or 5th iteration, with the excellent help of my 4 year old grandson, Balin. Right now, I have a roundy-round, with a branch line through the vegetable garden to a table at "Potlatch, ID. Next week, I plan to start the mainline to "Paloose, WA. When complete, I will then have a point to point with a loop. When funds allow, I will complete the rest of the mainline, going to "Boville, ID. Somewhere along that section will be another branch to a logging camp. In these parts, the trees are so big that Standard Gauge is needed to haul the logs out of the woods.

#14

I won’t even hazard a guess as to who will survive, other than to say I thing some may be surprised a year or two from now.

My new purchase budget is $0. I’ve been trying to sell / barter some of my excess to support moving away from 1:22.5 and 1:24 stuff and concentrating on 1:29 and 1:20.3. I do need to purchase on #6 switch to complete the expansion I’ve started, but that will be it.

If I spend anything at all non the railroad, it will be on landscape supplies, not train hardware.

#15

Steve; The USTrains wood reefers are 1:22.5 scale…

#16

Hi Fred:

My observation:

The economy was booming.

The train manufactures over produced for the Large Scale Market and there were incredible mind blowing sales of product being dumped available through the mail order dealers or at the large scale train shows.

The economy has now gone bust.

Now people ponder, why did I buy that? Reason: incredible sale prices.

So we all bought way more than we need, who could resist those blow out prices ? We were all like children at Christmas.

Now look at the LOW prices at which the formerly highly sought after and highly priced LGB engines and rolling stock are being sold at on ebay.

There has even been give away pricing of brass locomotives through the mail order dealers.

The money “invested” in locomotives / rolling stock is not recoverable even for the “highly collectable and limited edition” items.

This is fine as long as we understood at the time of purchase that our trains are depreciating items.

What is in store for the future?

Bachmann ON30 sales exceeds their large scale sales. Bachmann will do just fine but my guess is we have seen the end of future new large scale locomotive design offerings. They can’t build a reliable large scale locomotive drive at their required wholesale price point. The Annie will remain a future large scale locomotive product offering.

USA Trains’ high quality and Charles Ro business knowledge will ensure a future for USA Trains. Production will be limited until the economy recovers.

Aristo Craft medium price range and Lewis Polk’s years of experience will also ensure a future for Aristo Craft. Production will be limited until the economy recovers.

Accucraft’s Museum quality brass will continue to sell in limited production runs. There are still lots of wealthy Americans. It is middle class America which is getting pummeled and thrown out of work onto the streets.

LGB overproduced and alienated their collectable items clientel. I don’t believe there will be a LGB recovery of sales in America when LGB is refinanced. One might as well buy Accucraft / AML scale brass than buy comparatively priced but out of scale LGB plastic locomotives.

Everyone has overbought because we enjoy trains and have no resistance!

The dealers will maintain minimal stock until their sales recover. They are not going to stock dead inventory to pay the Banks unnecessary loan interest.

Bye for now

Norman

#17
Bruce Chandler said:
I'll continue to scratch build and bash. I could use some more rolling stock, but I see that the price for the Aristo-Delton trucks is up to $28. That kind of kills that for a good source.

I wish I had bought more of those AMS flatcars from Ridge Road when they were on sale. They make a great start for a boxcar.

I could use a few more cars, but right now I can do a good operating session with what I have, so there’s no pressing need to buy something.

I already have more locomotives than I need and I’m starting to think of selling one or two of them.

I really wish that there were some bigger drivers available to Barry - I’d love to have a BBT chassis with 4 48" drivers. I’ve decided that I like building on a good foundation, and the BBT drive is really nice.

My plan is to invite folks over to operate and spend money on beer and food to supplement the experience. :wink:


Name the time, I’d love to join ya…not that I need an excuse to visit ya…:wink:

#18
Norman Bourgault said:
...........

Everyone has overbought because we enjoy trains and have no resistance!

The dealers will maintain minimal stock until their sales recover. They are not going to stock dead inventory to pay the Banks unnecessary loan interest.

…


Norman,

So true and it isn’t just the trains!

However … here’s my story.

Back in early HO days (60’s) - prior to that I was in 1:100 - I had a lot of “ecclectic stuff” and a freelanced Swiss layout. One move later I started to concentrate a bit more, from '76 on it was “typical stuff for that era and area”, which meant I sold a lot of stuff and bought what would fit. Next, after another move, came the RhB HOm stuff (NG), sold most of the SG stuff. One more move, into IIm (1:22.5 RhB), meant selling most of the HOm stuff and then very selectively buying what fits the era, the section of the railroad being modeled and the operation being planned.

It is possible, just takes a bit more willpower and sticking with the plan.

BTW be warned, this approach drives the dealers crazy, not being able to sell you XYZ new gizmo even though it is the latest and greatest is just “not right”. :wink: :slight_smile: One large LS dealer (Canadian) even told me: “You’ve been in Canada long enough, you no longer need to model that Swiss stuff.” :slight_smile: :smiley: :lol: Little does he know. :wink:

#19
Fred Mills said:
Steve; The USTrains wood reefers are 1:22.5 scale......
Unless you decide they are 36 footers in 1:29. :lol:
#20

I was looking at aristo brass track on ridge road and all I can say is wow. Just 5 months ago I got the 4.5ft track for $14.99 not it is up to $22.99. Im sorry I dont care how much metal goes up 22.99 is not worth it. Im glad I bought that box when I did.