It is interesting to see that the push towards marketing the LS equipment in garden centres, did not pan out. I see also that marketing the On30 stuff at Christmas along with those Christmas Village buildings is almost non-existant.
Too bad, as I always thought that garden centres and magazines would be a fine venue, along with Christmas decorations. I guess I was dead wrong.
Kidman’s have a big tree farm/nursery in Des Moines, they have a layout there and have expanded into a good train store and have a nice internet site. Good folk to deal with. Iowa has a pretty big train club and I’m sure their setup has helped on that. They also bring a trailer load of stuff to Marty’s every year and sell stuff like hot cakes.
Kevin Strong said:Kevin, how long have you been in this hobby? 20 years? I do not know where you live, but all I have seen in these past 20 years is a catastrophic decline and shrinking of the market. Sure, if you just got into the hobby and you are discovering new things in your particular area of interest, things may look exciting. But from a wider perspective, these are just random fluctuations and delay induced oscillations. Even though he talks only about the most recent 5 years, Jon perfectly captured the depth of the problem. What you also need to realise is that the most likely the rate of decay is exponential and the hobby will not just disapear, but it shrinks at a constant rate (decay constant) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_decay Sad but true. Best wishes from Tokyo, Zubi
[...] My perspective is simply that I've been hearing "doom and gloom" forecasts from hobbyists for as long as I've been in this hobby, and I have yet to see anything close to what "they" predict.[...]
What about the fact of not having the mom and pop hobby store around. When I was growing up their were hobby stores all over. Mom and Dad would take a trip to the hobby store and see a small train layout. This I believe got the spark started. The kids would be in aw over the trains thus buying one. Now with the internet a lot of these hobby stores have shut down. Now there is no longer the intrest or at least something to spark it. People need to see that layout in person in order to get the intrest. Just like water gardens today. How many nurseries are their. In my area they are all over. I wonder if these garden centers focused on garden trains if that would spark something. Now its just the internet and who just says out of the blue l"et me look up garden trains". Not many new people they need to see it in person.
Zubi, 33 years. I started in large scale in 1976, and was involved in HO pretty much from that same time as well. I can’t remember not being involved in model railroading. You’re welcome to your perspective on the future of the hobby. I’m just saying it’s the same sad tale I’ve been hearing since I was a kid in the 80s. Here we are 30 years later, and the hobby is every bit as strong as it was then. Yes, local hobby shops are shutting their doors, and magazines are noticeably thinner than they were in the 80s. How much of that is a decline in the hobby vs. other market forces (the internet, for example). How much of that is the simple ebb and flow of the economy? How much of that is the increasingly busy lifestyle we subject ourselves to that competes for every last possible minute of time? I can almost guarantee you that in 10 years, I won’t be near as active in this hobby as I am now, because I’ll be spending my time supporting my kids’ interests. (Hopefully one of them is trains. Suzi loves her Playmobil set!) Does that mean I’ll have left the hobby? Not in the least. I’ll return when time permits.
One thing any decline is not based on is a declining population. US census data illustrates this very clearly. We hear all this talk about the baby boomer generation reaching retirement age, but there are more people in my generation (sons and daughters of the baby boomers) to fill the ranks. Populations go in waves, but they’re universally on the increase.
Waning interest in the younger generation? Sorry. I don’t buy it for a second. I didn’t have Thomas growing up, I didn’t have Lego trains, Brio, or any of those “gotta have” kids’ train toys. Railroads in the 70s were as far removed from mainstream America then as they are now–arguably more so with the increase in commuter and light rail that we’ve seen in the past decade. Trust me–kids know what trains are. They may not know what a steam loco is, but they know what trains are. I’ll offer my daughter’s 3-year-old day care class as evidence of that. Video game distractions? I was on the front end of the video game generation. When I was in my 20s, I was pretty much a lone wolf in my age group in the model railroad clubs I belonged to. Now that I’m pushing 40, the number of people around my age is increasing as they, too, settle down in life and have time (and money) for a hobby. That “video game generation” is on the forefront of driving new technology to make our trains even more realistic in terms of sound, control, even appearance. By the time today’s kids get active in the hobby, “analog DC” control will likely be as antiquated a concept as black and white TV is to me.
That’s where my perspective comes from. The hobby will survive. It will mutate, it will adapt to current trends, it will ebb and flow, and probably not grow much at all, but it will survive. In 70 years, our trains will be the Basset-Lowke and Lionel locos of our time. They’ll still run, they’ll still be enjoyed by future generations. So long as the steel wheels touch steel rails, people will still love trains.
Later,
K
When I was doing the model engineering thing, one of my suppliers sweet talked me into doing a ‘home show’ with his ride on scale trains, and other stuff. “Think outside the box!”, he said… more like sit ON the box for 2 days, bored goofy. We went with a loco, a caboose, a bunch of literature, a video of people riding the trains, and tv… and 4 pounds of Werthers’.
The candy was gone by noon, and beyond a few “Oh, that’s cute.” comments NOBODY stopped, and nobody so much as took a business card. – Granted, the mini-catalogs were priced at 25c, but if they are too cheap to spend a quarter, what makes you think they’ll spend $2500? Or $25 for that matter?
Great reading, thoughtful ideas - unfortunately, we don’t hear from the mfgs. – readers of LSC?
Meanwhile, try out a garden magazine pictorial with some tag lines on what readers are looking at. Readers? My guess the garden-mag readers are very age group noted in above posts.
At the end of the photo garden rr pictorial, have the usual listing of mfg., interest groups, and where to get more data.
This may be telling.
Wendell
Zbigniew Struzik said:Are you talking about model railroading in general, or just large scale? Large scale was still in its infancy 20 years ago.
...all I have seen in these past 20 years is a catastrophic decline and shrinking of the market. i
Even if the large scale market withers, there will always be a core of people determined to stick with it. They won’t have as many off-the-shelf products to choose from, and the products that remain will be more expensive. But that just means it will become more of a “modeler’s hobby”.
Thirty years ago, it looked to me like S scale was a deadend, and wouldn’t be around much longer. When I got back into railroading in 1996 and started buying the Gazette again, I was surprised to see it still going strong.
Ray,
LGB was going pretty strong 35 years ago.
I couldn’t tell you when they started.
I had HO back in the 70’s, but I remember seeing LGB trains.
Ralph
LGB started in 1968. Their demise–like Kalamazoo, Delton, and a handful of other companies that have come and gone–are hardly attributable to an overall decline in the hobby. Rather, they all failed at a point of relative growth. All three companies’ molds continue to live on in other manufacturers’ product lines.
Economic turmoil within model companies is nothing new. Lionel has been bought and sold how often? Rivarossi? The list goes on. It’s a reflection of the economic risk of doing business in a niche hobby like this, regardless of what the demographics are doing. I presume that’s what Jon was looking at when pondering his business–certainly it’s what I looked at when entertaining the notions that were presented to me. The numbers weren’t there to make a viable business, even in the best of times.
Later,
K
One of the old men here. I’ve been modeling since my first train set at 5. That puts me at about 50 years at it. My father before me started in the 30’s. I worked in a hobby shop in the trains (Iowa Service Hobby - long gone) department from the time I could legally work through high school graduation. Yes, the magazines are thinner, but there are more of them and you can take your pick of what suites your interests. I’ve modeled in O, HO, N and Fn3. Now concentrate on HO and F. I’ve read all of the MR’s back to issue #1 (yes, I have most of them), Plus RR Model Craftsman etc. Still pull them out and read back issues. In the 60’s it was the threat of the slot cars (guess which one died (well, mostly dead))? I see much more in the market today in all scales to buy or build. granted the kits are less in evidence than they use to be, but look at what you get compared to the Silver Streak kits of the 60’s and 70’s. It is not only up to the manufacturers to promote the hobby (such as the “Worlds Greatest Hobby” effort, but it also belongs to each of us modelers. I keep RR magazines in my office and sometimes a current model I’ve built or purchased where people coming in can see them. I get guys and women ask about it, especially ones who have kids. It opens a great opportunity to talk about railroading and hopefully spark enough interest to continue the conversation away from work. When I had a home layout (between layouts due to a move), I would invite people over who showed an interest and sometimes the kids would get into it and the hobby gained a new “train nut”. When I am in places like Hobby Lobby or other retailers who have a small railroad section and I see someone with a kid there, I take the time to talk about the hobby, let them know where some of the shops in the area are (some don’t realize that hobby shops are still listed in the yellow pages (some don’t know what yellow pages are…)). I’ve run into more than one parent at a hobby shop I recommended and was told how much fun they are having. Paying for one of the magazines and then handing it to them and telling them to have a go read is a cheap investment to continue to expand our great hobby.
Again, it is up to all of us, not jus the manufactures to make the hobby grow.
Actually, it sounds just as sad that people would rather play with trains in retirement than to spend it with their families.
At least as a greeter you get out, meet people, instead of hiding in your basement with your trains…
John Spehar said:
With the baby boomers starting to retire there should be a large portion of this group that could be hooked on LS trains. A lot of retirees are looking for something to take up thier time now that work they have been doing for 40 years has ended. When these people take a job at MacDonalds or as a greeter at Wal-Mart in most cases it is not for the money. It is to have someplace to go and people to interact with. They need a reason to get up and get moving. I think the LS manufacturers are missing the boat, or in this case the train, and need to get together to promote the hobby and not just try to sell their individual products. An industry sponsored nation wide program demonstrating the great advantages of being involved with model trains in the garden, or even in the basement, is needed. They need to form a LS train manufacturers association. Then each of them has to contribute some seed money to hire a firm and come up with a promotional plan that deals with all aspects of the hobby. Model building, train history, train operations, electrical controls, gardening around the train, clubs to join, etc: I find myself spending more and more time on my train and loving every minute of it. At 68 I am pre-baby boomer and I lived near a rail line where I saw a lot of steam engines so I probably have more interest in trains. But I think there is a lot that can be done if the companies in the industry start thinking more about recruting their future customers and not just trying to beat the competition in sales of today's products.John
George Smith said:
Actually, it sounds just as sad that people would rather play with trains in retirement than to spend it with their families.At least as a greeter you get out, meet people, instead of hiding in your basement with your trains…
Want to expand the large scale niche? REALLY want to expand it? Seriously?
Embrace the ‘around the Christmas tree’ crowd. That means an attractive, affordable, sturdy, AND reliable starter set WITH R-1 curves. LGB got it right on this – except maybe the price. It seems HLW is the only one left to carry that torch, and they are often hard to find. (Aristo starter sets are just a bit too spendy, and what’s the point of buying B’mann if you have to replace the transformer and track right away to get it to run reliably?)
Embrace young people just getting started. See above.
2a. ALSO no more running down Thomas, or any other movie/show that features trains.
2b. For the manufacturers that means no more junky, cheap looking looking crap (Hear me, Lionel?), it doesn’t cost much more to do it right than wrong.
Embrace newbies, even if they do things “wrong”. Eventually they’ll want to learn more, or they won’t. There’s no wrong way to play with toy trains (unless they’re a perv trying to lure kids)
Get out there and be living advertisements for the hobby. Set up a temporary layout at your local fair/carnival/outdoor/holiday show. Be friendly, answer questions, even the same one 100 times. Have a stack of recent GR back issues to give away. and LET A KID RUN A TRAIN if you can!
Be a willing mentor to anybody who asks for help.
Or sit around an piss and moan… it’s up to you.
George Smith said:
Actually, it sounds just as sad that people would rather play with trains in retirement than to spend it with their families.At least as a greeter you get out, meet people, instead of hiding in your basement with your trains…
As a retiree I’m happy to be living my new life as an independent unencumbered agent. I don’t miss the crush of people I had to deal with daily when I was working. That was then and this is now, a whole new chapter. Actually, this new relative isolation is very pleasant. It gives you time to be more introspective, to appreciate the many small things in your life you missed when you only had time to notice the big stuff. As always, life is what YOU make it.
Enjoy,
Walt
Wendell,
when one looks to the future, the failure rate of manufacturers has to be taken into perspective. Does a business fail due reduced market share (more competition in a once monopolistic market), unable to sell current inventory (even with factory backed ‘bonuses’), inability to expand to encompass new manufacturing trends (insufficient capital) or is it simply poor management skills? Failure of a company is not necessarily symptomatic of a declining market. It simply means that the company’s consumer attraction has passed its zenith and future sales decline.
The consumer is like an audience for a stand-up comedian. If the jokes are coming thick and fast, then the applause and laughter is raucous. If the comedian flatlines, then his target audience reacts against him by walking out, or dare say it, actually criticising his performance. The audience paid for a performance and expect to get what they paid for. It is fine for a manufacturer to state on open (and closed) forums that his product is the greatest and best and exceeds the performance limitations of his competitors, but in reality it is the consumer who determines the fate of the hobby.
When quality was the main ingredient the consumer wanted, then quality firms like Marklin, Fleischman and LGB were at the top of the market. The demand was there for anything they produced. Market domination began to wane when consumers looked to cheaper alternatives with lower expectations of quality and more value for their money. Monopolies crumbled and were unable to achieve market ranking, even though they outsourced production (and quality control) to countries with lower production costs. The management were unable to adjust to the needs of running a shoestring budget. Champagne and Perrier water were not on the lunchtime menu anymore. It was down to tap water and the inevitable happened with all the famous marque brandnames given blood transfusions in the mid-2000's to stem off bankruptcy. The companies suddenly started to become investment opportunities and shareholders demanded returns, or they moved their investment capital on to other business opportunities.
It is easy to blame the market when one is unable to adjust to the new market criteria, but failure of companies, quite often is down to poor business sense. LGB were unable to adjust to the competition from the early 1990's onwards. Marklin were unable to lower their pricing structure, trying to remain exclusive in a declining market for the calibre of items they produced. Delton simply spent too much money on tooling and never recovered. Ironic that their tooling is still in use and yet the brandname has been extinct for around twenty years.
When I modelled 'h.o.' there was no thought of 'what if the company fails?'. The modelling was there and then with no thought of the future. Sure iconic brandnames came and went and yet their product remained under different names. The 'problem' with largescale' is the mortality issue of the mainstream largescale modeller. Is the future of the hobby somehow related to his own impending mortality? A little psychological, but maybe close to the truth.Quote:As I've mentioned in previous posts, I grew up in this hobby--and didn't by any means grow up isolated. My dad and I shared many, many hours together working/playing on the railroad. We still do every chance we get, though 1800 miles does tend to make that happen less frequently than we'd prefer. I can say with absolute certainty that if we were closer, the grandkids would be over there playing on the railroad every possible moment.
... Actually, it sounds just as sad that people would rather play with trains in retirement than to spend it with their families.
The overwhelming sentiment in large scale has always been one of family involvement. That’s really what sets this community apart from the smaller scales. You’re free to lament a loss of “family time” if you’d like, but I’d offer you’ve more worthy things to shed tears over. 'Tis simply not the case here.
Later,
K
I wish I could asorb all this text but I just like the pretty pictures your guys post of your choo choo trains.
I’m really hoping Santa will bring me a pony this year!
I agree in as much as if you are just getting started in the g-guage hobby and you want to do it on the cheap then go the Botchmann Christmas tree route, or other! I think we all have gone that route to start, but then I visited a hobby shop in the late ninety’s and saw an engine with the real deal sound in it, and I was hooked on the $500+ range things, then I had my LGB period, if 2 years ago you would have told me I would be installing my own quality sound and running steam engines and freight cars I would have said you must be “nuts” but here i am!! I still like the narrow guage engines and themes, and have a couple three of those, and I had a B.N. pass set with heavyweights, and also a u.p. one, and I also had a D&RG pa/pb and usa streamliners, I still would like to have a u.p. set up had to sell all the passenger sets! Will have another some day, really like the usa quality. But back to the order of the day. Once you get hooked on the garden rr and see what’s out there the Christmas tree dealy is GONE and I have went through alot of things. The Large scale industry has priced itself out of the entry level area other than the Christmas stuff and has stopped alot of guys from going into it because of cost and end up in HO or O guage. I have thought about O guage myself but have resisted. Like the idea of runnin my trains in the backyard and now with the “livestream” sharing running them, and showing them on some days with the people on the internet, and be able to share my hobby with them! The Railroad magazine venue I believe will also disappear in a few years, if not sooner, because of the internet and the world wide web you no longer have to hold a paper to read, which is also unfortunate but a “sign of the times” I was in the newpaper field and did everything in the newspaper after it left the paste up stage and came to me in photography, and then printing press and then out the door in circulation. That is coming to an end you see everyday newspapers folding, printing their last paper and closing the doors forever. I also gave up my subscription to garden rr mag, and now frequent the two train sites which includes this one which I enjoy very much. I watch the news on t.v. and everything else is on my computer. The Large scale industry needs to get ahold of pricing, and make it reasonable, and obtainable for everyone. I see some things on here where I believe the people must be “gazzillionaires” because I am up on the pricing of what they have. Boggles my mind sometimes refering to the “moguls” in this hobby! So I would hope that the Large Scale industry gets ahold of itself and not raise the prices a whole lot more! As they do people leave and go smaller because of the cost must be a “happy medium” somewhere. But as the new and exciting things come out the price will increase and somebody will buy it I guess it is leaving me about in the middle just trying to stand my ground. Not purchasing anything much anymore, just trying to liven up the back yard with some plants bridges etc, in the future and possibly some more track and or track plans made differently. I think I’m pretty much where I want to be engine and rolling stock wise maybe add the pass train somewhere down the road!!! The Regal
I for the most part fall into the same category as Jerry, and agree with his points.
The Walmarts of the hobby are taking over via internet sales.
The price of 60 feet of brass track can vary as much as $80 between the hobby shops and online retailers, and that is a shame in itself.
Why would I support a local hobby shop when I can purchase the same item online for just over half the price? the hobby shop is a great place to go and physically see what it looks like and discuss with what might even be someone who knows what they are talking about, but very few instances will be with a true large scale expert.
Enter the web sales.
I bought a used aristo switcher from Jerry for 1/3rd of what it would have cost me new, and new is something that would have gone away the second it hit outdoor track anyway.
Much like a ‘New’ car, the value is gone the second it is no longer quantifiably new.
Getting new people into the hobby is a matter of exposure, and one of people skills. It takes 6 months to build a customer base, and 6 seconds to lose them. I personally will pay more for an item and be treated with respect than do business with someone who doesn’y give a $hit one way or the other about me.
These seem to be contradictory points to be sure, but are truths. The brand name on the box is not as important as the ability to actually have it to start with, and therein lies the glitch, the start.
I will soon be in the yard with my 4 boys and large scale trains, and not a single one of my boys will care who made it, what kind of track it is on, or even recognize era’s or company names as a start, and thats fine. Being interested enough to continue is the base line, not the red box, the Mikado, the Dash 9, or the Norfolk Stallion.
If they choose to continue when they have their own places it is their decision to make, or they can come and use my track, either works for me. Ultimately its about my family and time with them, and THAT SHOULD BE THE TARGET MARKET!
I was introduced to Lionel at the ripe old age of three. Although the detail was not there, and three rails were something I didn’t care about, it was intriguing, and the beginning of the journey. Look at Lionels marketing history. It is a lesson in economics, and when they changed their marketing they created their own destiny.
I’ll do my part to promote the hobby in my area, no problem, but what about the average model train club? Anyone care to comment on the average age of their members? Ask yourselves why. What could be done by the club to change that?
Is the club strictly operations, or is a loop availabe for continuous running just to see them go? Personally I will include both in my track plan, so either is possible. No one likes to be put in a difficult situation.
I would be embarrased at the switching problems at Bruces or Fr. Freds, and likely escorted to the property line long before I finished the switching operation, and thats fine, Its not where I am at, yet. Are members surly or do they welcome newcomers?