I would imagine in 20 years, we’ll go through the archives of this forum and say “what was all the fuss about?”
Three things come to mind that are going to shape how we run trains in the future. First, there’s the ever-improving battery technology. Smaller, lighter, and more powerful seems to be the mantra. It might be a tall order to expect commercial products to make the switch from track to battery power in that time–I think “traditional DC” power is simply too well entrenched to just go away. But as we’ve already seen today, manufacturers are going to make it dead-nuts simple to add a battery and 3rd-party controller to the locomotive instead.
Second, there’s the emergence of “Keep-Alive” technology (aka “super caps”) that are already making serious inroads in the small scales as they combat the same track issues we have. Those, too, I think are going to get more and more commonplace–perhaps to the point where we need “live” tracks only on certain key areas of the railroad, allowing the super caps to provide power through reverse loops, hard-to-clean areas (tunnels, bridges), and elsewhere.
But the third–and perhaps most exciting–motivator for change lies in how we control them. As we’re already seeing, the capabilities of Bluetooth, WiFi, and other wireless network technologies is going to make everything we currently have seem archaic. I see the handheld controller (phone, tablet, whatever form it might take) becoming the brains of the operation. It’s not going to control a “little black box” that controls the trains, it will be the “little black box.” Whatever communications protocol the network uses–likely something we have yet to imagine–it will allow the receiver in each locomotive to relay telemetry data to the controller, so it will know the status of all the locomotives on the railroad. I can see miniature cameras mounted in cab windows feeding back live images to a dispatcher’s monitor and/or engineer’s handheld device. There’s also the potential for RFID to provide feedback for automation and other control functions.
I think the decoder on the locomotive will still remain the heart-and-soul of the locomotive, retaining specifics about sounds, lights, smoke, and certain motor control parameters. But I see the paradigm shifting away from the decoder being built to any one specific “standard” such as DCC to one where the compatibility is governed the control software and manufacturer-specific plug-ins or drivers, similar to how we would install a printer on our computer or network today. Take your locomotive to another railroad? You’d get a pop-up on your command screen that says something like “New locomotive detected. Select plug-in or download new.”
I see the potential for the handheld controller we use to take on the form of a cellphone case–something that just attaches to our phones. Maybe it has physical knobs and buttons that then just make contact with the screen, or maybe it’s a separate box that communicates wirelessly to the phone/tablet/whatever. I don’t think there’s any avoiding the emergence of our phones and tablets as being the core of future generations of control systems.
Troglodytes, fear not. I don’t see this emerging technology as being mandatory. As I first wrote, “analog DC” is far too entrenched as the base. I think you’ll always be able to buy a locomotive, plunk it on the rails, apply power, and watch it run. It’s just that each locomotive will have the potential for so much more.
Consider Piko’s new locomotives. They’re sold with DCC-compatible decoders in them, but will also run on “analog DC.” Currently, to take advantage of the full capabilities of the loco, you need to run it on a track-powered DCC railroad. Now, consider this scenario - instead of needing a DCC control system, you would go to the App store, download Piko’s control app, either apply power to the rails or install batteries and you’re off and running, taking advantage of all the bells and whistles the locomotive offers. Already using another control software system? Download the Piko plug-in for your control software, and you’re off and running.
Fun to dream…
Later,
K
