Large Scale Central

THE CHINESE CAR BOMB By 21st Century Wire

General Discussion
#1

http://21stcenturywire.com/2011/03/07/the-chinese-car-bomb/

21st Century Wire said:
By Andrew McKillop 21st Century Wire March 8, 2011

We are facing a very real kind of event horizon. Car industry and car fleet growth is accelerating so fast that we may find ourselves in a “can’t get there from here” resource pinch, with no alternative and no way out, starting with an oil supply shortage.

Until very recently exploding numbers of oil- and gas-fuelled road vehicles, including cars, buses, trucks, motorcycles, scooters, mopeds, all terrain ‘fun’ vehicles, and agricultural ‘off-road’ vehicles increasingly used for road transport (Footnote) have drawn much less attention than human population numbers. This is curious given the rate of increase, shown by a few simple figures: in 1939 the world’s roughly 2.3 Billion inhabitants shared a total of around 47 Million motor vehicles.

Today’s 6.3 Billion human beings have around 775 Million motor vehicles to fuel, repair, park and run, almost exclusively using petroleum and natural gas. Human numbers increased less than three-fold, but the world’s car population grew by a staggering 1750%.

#2

So what’s the problem?

#3

The World Oil supplies will run out sooner than predicted?

#4

That is one opinion, but in this country we are not allowed to drill for it. However, we have enough grease balls in politics to keep us in oil for many centuries. Tony, you are just trying to pick a fight. Not going to happen.

#5

I used to own a New York Times paper from the 1890’s. One of the articles addressed the problem of the growing amount of horse manure in the streets. The author predicted that the New York city streets would become impassable due to this growing problem. Then along came the car??? It has been 100 years and we are looking at a similar problem. What is curious is that there are more horses in North America today than the 100 years ago. The now exist on horse ranches where they are well cared for. I hope to live long enough to see what will happen next. Regards, Dennis.

#6

I do not think the math is correct.

47M units * 1647%= 775M units

2.3B units * 2740%=6.3B units

1939 there were 49 persons per car

Today there are 8 persons per car

My household has 5 licensed vehicles with three drivers.

We never have more than 60% of our vehicles on the road at any given moment.

Bring on the hydrogen fuel cells.

#7

Very good point Dave. We have 3 vehicles and 2 are very seldom being driven at the same time. The 2 of us have never tried driving 3 at once. If I do try it, I’ll file a report.

#8

Dave your math is typed wrong… I show 2billion, 300million times 2740% to equal 63billion, not 6 point 3 billion.

#9
Ric Golding said:
That is one opinion, but in this country we are not allowed to drill for it. However, we have enough grease balls in politics to keep us in oil for many centuries. Tony, you are just trying to pick a fight. Not going to happen.
Ric. I am not trying to pick a fight. Yes it is an opinion. Not mine. That is why I put a question mark in. If you read they article right through that is what is predicted.
#10

Tony,

I apologize, I did not see your statement as a question toward the article. I misread the intention of your reply for that I am sorry.

#11

No problems Ric.
The figures that are quoted are mind staggering.
In the not too distant future, the demand for oil from China and India alone, is going to take the whole of the OPEC production.
Now the article may be way off base, but that is what it says.

#12

Accurate or not, it does start one thinking, eh.

#13

Absolutely.

#14

With horses, we walked in it; today, with automobiles; we breath it…summed up; it’s all “SHI*T” in box car letters…!!

#15

If oil is formed over time from dead trees and animals, then it should be a renewable resource. No? Plants and animals still died since the dinosaurs, so maybe the next batch of oil is ready to tap after the last batch is exhausted. I dunno?

#16

In nature everything eventually levels. Mountains will eventually erode to fill in valleys, it just takes a little time.

#17

Everything I’ve read in the past 10-15 years suggests that global petroleum reserves that are economically feasible to extract will be exhausted within the next 20-50 years. We can argue about the time frame but I think we can all agree that eventually we’re going to run out. So it seems to me that we have two choices: get serious NOW about advancing research on alternatives to fossil fuels and, embrace/enforce (dirty word) conservation - OR we keep drilling and digging at the current pace and hope and pray that our great-grandchildren will be much smarter than we are and will be able to figure out a better way to do things.

#18

With an increasing population and demand for food, production of farm products, specifically to supplement the depleting ‘known’ oil reserves is going to highlight a perplexing moral issue. Do we continue to use up our oil and deprive the hungry of food by converting crops into fuel, or do we ration fuel (potential for world conflict) and feed the hungry? Fuel hungry China and India, are both immerging superpowers that will not take kindly to being told to decrease fuel usage so that western countries can enjoy the freedom they have squandered for decades.

Vast natural reserves in South America are being cleared to grow crops destined for the bio-fuel industry. Depleting natural reserves mean less oxygen production and carbon absorbption, so we will ultimately reach a point where a choice will need to be made whether to breathe or use our cars! Of cause, that implies that we have not already destroyed ourselves in global conflict to retain the last drop of oil for our personal national usage.

Yes, Obama has halted further development into deep water oil reserves in the Gulf, but until multinational oil companies come to their senses and see the planet as fragile, then I agree with him. The recent disaster in the Gulf highlighted just how incapable the companies are to resolve disasters when they happen. That particular oil exploration company knew the well head was not servicable and yet continued the operation. This was at 5000 feet down. The previous deepest oil disaster was at only 160 feet depth. Further oil exploration is at the 5000 foot depth or even deeper. After the last fiasco, do we really trust these companies to put the environment ahead of profits?

Last year, we had a major oil rig disaster off the Western Australian coastline, in which oil spewed into the Indian Ocean for more than two months. The area was a particularly fragile stretch of water close to pristine natural coastal reserve parks. The company were unable to halt the flow and had to bring another rig from Singapore to the area and drill an intersecting shaft and cap the leaking head. How did our government react? They awarded the same company the rights to further investigate and drill the surrounding area!

#19

My question may have sounded silly, but I am serious. If oil is produced from decaying organic matter, shouldn’t oil be considered a renewable resource?

#20
David Hill said:
My question may have sounded silly, but I am serious. If oil is produced from decaying organic matter, shouldn't oil be considered a renewable resource?
Not if it is being consumed faster than it can be created.