Large Scale Central

Statistics

General Discussion
#1

I love graphs. They are a great way to look at trends, and see how things are related, or how they’re used. I have 3 graphs about the forums, that I look at occasionally. One more than the rest.

Heres the first graph. It shows the number of forum posts for the last 60 days (in blue), and the trend line (in red)

http://www.largescalecentral.com/LSCForums/postsperday.php

Next up, are 2 that are related, first one is posts by day of the week, 1 being Sunday:

http://www.largescalecentral.com/LSCForums/postsbyDOW.php

And last, is posts by day of the month

http://www.largescalecentral.com/LSCForums/postsbyDOM.php

That one is interesting, showing a noticable dip mid month, and end of month. The only thing I can think that would cause that is for people that get paid twice a month, are out doing honeydo’s, and shopping, instead of at the computer posting.

Discuss…

#2

Hi Bob, :wink: :wink:

Hmmmmmmmmm.

I don’t know … never looked at a graph in that light, but I guess it is possible. :slight_smile: :wink: :slight_smile:

#3

With the full month graph I would think that you would need to look at the full 12 month cycle. As the last graph doesn’t state what month it is…or I missed it…there is no way to over lay it with the daily graph to see of the patterns match.

I noticed one day on the graph that there were almost “0” posts. Was this a Sunday, or was this a holiday…or did some particular world event affect it that day??

My personal opinion is that there isn’t quite enough information to make an honest conclusion on the meaning of the graphs…but still interesting :slight_smile:

Warren

#4
Warren Mumpower said:
My personal opinion is that there isn't quite enough information to make an honest conclusion Warren
Well, you know what they say about statistics :)
#5
Chris Vernell said:
Warren Mumpower said:
My personal opinion is that there isn't quite enough information to make an honest conclusion Warren
Well, you know what they say about statistics :)
Chris,

I meant to ask Bob how this interphases with the moon cycle, that could influence things as well. :slight_smile: :smiley: :wink:

#6

From the events that have occurred recently, we must have just had a full moon…:smiley: :smiley:

Warren

#7

Bob, if the dow and dom charts are for 60 days, you really need more data to determine any correlation. I used to do a lot of trend analysis, was charting various physical phenomena.

The trend over 60 days is interesting, but what is your averaging function, is it linear, sine, and over how many days does it compute this average?

Just curious, not trying to rain on your parade…

Regards, Greg

#8
Warren Mumpower said:
From the events that have occurred recently, we must have just had a full moon...:D :D

Warren


Nah, it’s coming up on Saturday, Oct 7th… at least that’s what’s marked on my large Polar Bear calendar. :wink: :slight_smile:

Sure looked like it when we drove home from the airport this evening.

… like a large pizza pie… :slight_smile:

#9

Are those the days when Fr Fred does hsi “Nude Sundance”? Perhaps everyone is out stocking upon anti-emetics!!!

#10
Greg Elmassian said:
Bob, if the dow and dom charts are for 60 days, you really need more data to determine any correlation. I used to do a lot of trend analysis, was charting various physical phenomena.

The trend over 60 days is interesting, but what is your averaging function, is it linear, sine, and over how many days does it compute this average?

Just curious, not trying to rain on your parade…

Regards, Greg


The DOW and DOM charts are for total number of messages in the system. i.e. “All messages ever posted on monday” or “all messages ever posted on the 1st”. Yea, the DOM one is skewed because all months dont have 31 days.

Any suggestions how to improve the graphs?

#11
Hans-Joerg Mueller said:
Chris Vernell said:
Warren Mumpower said:
My personal opinion is that there isn't quite enough information to make an honest conclusion Warren
Well, you know what they say about statistics :)
Chris,

I meant to ask Bob how this interphases with the moon cycle, that could influence things as well. :slight_smile: :smiley: :wink:


Yes, there is a certain lunat … er … looney … ooops … lunar cycle in the air, as it were.
(Dons flame suit, enters bunker)

#12

Thanks Bob, that knowledge on the DOM and DOW charts makes them great data in my opinion.

The question about the averaging algorithm was more of curiosity than any complaint.

Interesting data.

Regards, Greg

#13

Concerning the first graph:
Does it conver you [Bob] that the overall numbers of posts are declining? What theories do you have affecting the results? Lately, it seems like there have been very few technical posts. Hmmmmm.
JimC.

#14

Well, if I look at past data for, say, the last 180 days, it shows a steady trend averaging about 35 posts a day, with high spikes into the 80s, and lows dropping to the mid-teens. The current spike/drop isnt a real concern, because in the long run, it disappears into the regular curve.