You say “Gauge 1 is finished in the North American marketplace,” if I’m reading your thoughts correctly, that’s based on the notion that you need lots of space for 1:20.3, etc.
That doesn’t hold water for me. You’re equating 1:20.3 modeling with large locos and equipment, which isn’t the case any more than you can equate standard gauge railroading with 4-unit diesel consists and 100-car coal drags. It may be one possible aspect of modeling, but it’s not the only thing to model. Absolutely, you need a fair amount of space to run a K-27 with 30 cars in tow. You need that space (and more) to run “mainline” standard gauge stuff. On the other hand, you can easily do both standard and narrow gauge modeling–and do it well–in a small amount of space.
My back yard is all of 35’ x 60’ (nominally,) and I’ve fit 300’ of track in that space, while keeping the majority of it open so the kids have plenty of room to play. The feature railroad in this month’s GR is all of 30’ x 40’–about 2/3s the space I have, and–likewise–has a large grassy area in the middle of the space. You simply don’t need a lot of space. He’s running fairly modern standard gauge trains on that, and from the photos, doing a very good job of it! You do have to tailor your trains to the space available. A K-27 with 30 cars in tow would be hard-pressed to fit around my lower reverse loop, and would simply overwhelm the space I have. My trains are usually around 6 - 8 cars long with the largest loco I have on the active roster being a B’mann outside-frame 2-8-0.
LGB’s still out there. Piko’s still out there. Bachmann’s 1:22 stuff is still out there. Hartland, etc… all these “legacy” products that are small and can handle the small curves are still being made. The manufacturers, thus, have a good handle on how they’re selling. Manufacturers like Bachmann and Aristo can gauge those sales vs. their other product lines for an even clearer picture of the market.
I think it’s a very, very small percentage of the market who today would do 1:24 on 1.5" gauge track. The reality is that most large scalers in the US don’t care that the scale/gauge relationship may be wrong. It’s just not important to them. Your market, then, would be those narrow gauge modelers for whom a proper scale/gauge relationship is paramount. Of that already small market, you have to subtract those modelers who are invested in 1:20.3. Your only “real” market is those modelers who are particular about scale/gauge and are VERY spatially challenged, and want to run models of large narrow gauge prototypes such as Ks, 50-ton Shays, etc. (Because there are a BUNCH of “1:22.5” locos from LGB and Bachmann that actually scale out very well in 1:20.3 compared to various prototypes, so you can do 1:20.3 with LGB equipment on R1 curves.)
Personally, if I had $1 million to invest in the hobby for narrow gauge, I’d be investing in small 1:20.3 locos like 18-ton Shays, Class A Climaxes, or small 2-6-0s like the C&S or W&W moguls, and for rolling stock, 25’ freight cars and some short passenger coaches. The prototypes are out there; these needn’t be freelance models. But they’d be small enough to fit around (at least) a 3’ radius curve, and–more importantly–look halfway decent doing so. They’d also be small enough to blend in well with the existing 1:22 and 1:24 stuff, so folks could buy it and not feel like it dwarfs their rolling stock as some of the larger 1:20 stuff does. As I see it, there’s no need to “invent” a new scale/track gauge when we’re not using the one we have to its full potential.
Later,
K