Stopped by Arnie’s Trains in SoCal and got to talking with one of the salesmen. I told him that I saw a Bachmann K-27 for sale for $449.95 at Pomona last weekend and thought it was the bargain of the century. He said he’s got two Bachmann Shays (three-truck models, although I can’t say for sure) and that he can’t unload them even at–and here’s where I forget–$495? Does that sound right? He said they’re for sale all over the place and that nobody wants 'em. He said nobody has any money. I disagreed, telling him that I saw pricey Accucraft locos running at Pomona. Anyway, we reached no conclusion except that perhaps the market is saturated with geared locos. Or maybe all locos. Yer thoughts?
The market for “toys” is flat or even close to “dead” in all areas, not just trains. I’ve seen 'K’s sit unsold at $450.00, 2-6-6-2’s passed by at $360.00, and Forneys on the shelf at $300.00.
If we judge the shay as passé because of its slow sales I fear we must judge the whole hobby in the same light.
There is little doubt, it is a buyers market right now…Sell cheap, buy cheap.
I agree absolutely with Marks observation, I can verify it by my recent sales on Ebay, the market is dead D E A D dead, or at the most Zombified, dead yet still sort of alive. I recently sold 3 LGB cars, two shorty coaches and the Zillertall keg car, these in the past were VERY popular items and always sold for close to the original street price. Now there are dillusional sellers on Ebay who have the same coach car at a BIN price of over $150!, the original street price was about $60 each, I tried selling the coaches as a pair for $80, thats $40 apiece plus you get combined shipping. Good deal eh? NOPE! No bidders, and only a few watchers (like 4?) So I lowered the price to $65 for the pair, again no bidders, I’m like wow. So I break the set up and sell them separately. Coach 1 goes up at $40, nyet, so I go again for a start $30. FINALLY I got bids, it ended up selling for only $35 frigging dollars!!! Coach 2 goes up also for a measly $30, I get a bid then an email from some guy wanting to know if I would take $34 for the coach if I sold it offline. His logic was that “others have sold for this price” so he wants me to take his lowball offer knowing its way under what I know it would be worth in a good economy. Well that ticked me off, its already got a bid and frankly I KNOW what its value should be, but there just is NO mass market right now, the available pool of bidders has IMHO shrunk down to a small handfull. So I ignored the lowball bid and let it ride, and the item eventually sells for $40 (not to Mr Lowball BTW, and not the buyer of coach 1 either). Now the Zillertall keg car has always been one of those “Must Have” EPL LGB cars, and this was a mint NIB made by EPL in Germieland Zillertall car, not any on the myriad of other varients EPL made over the years. This car in the salad days a few years ago could easily have gone to $200, the crazies have it for a BIN price of over $250. After the coach experience I put it up for only $40, it sold for about $80 but there were only about 3 bids total. I have had several similar experiences selling plastic model kits, selling for way under the MSRP price and /or only getting a tiny handfull of bids. The market for “toys” is just not there anymore. I have other stuff I want to sell, some stuff I have to sell no matter what but other stuff has more value than I know the market will sell at.To be honest I think I would have been better off just boxing them up and putting them under the crawlspace until things get better.
(http://www.tristanx.com/wp-content/uploads/godzilla_facepalm.jpg)
No…its not…
Bart Salmons said:Does that mean you need another Shay, Bart? ;) I just happen to be getting one...
No...its not...
Huh! Guess that answers that question, kinda. What I’m wondering is if model railroading in general is in a buying funk, or is it just large scale? Speaking for myself, I’m not buying locos or rolling stock right now because I have no real railroad, just a loop on the floor where I exercise my 10 wheelers. I have to admit, Bachmann’s C-19 is calling, but if I bought it, it would join my two yet-to-be run Connies on the fireplace shelves (hey, better some locos than Hummel figures). Mainly, I’m not in a buying mood because of my numerous structure building projects, which are chewing through my modeling budget pretty good (five sheets of Precision Plastic at $10 each plus shipping, for example). And I’ve already got a new project in mind.
As I wrote at the top of this thread, there’s money being spent. At Pomona, I watched one of our guys unbox his new C-19 and give it a trial run on his layout. And that’s just one of the dozens of locos he owns.
I agree with Mark V: it’s a good time to buy.
Please ship all your unsold stuff over here - the last price I read for a K-27 was a smidgin over $1400. Forney? Don’t make me laff! Try $1560…
tac
I don’t think the toy train market is dead but it is slow right now meaning lower supply VS demand pricing all around. Is it the economy or have many folks like myself reached a point where I want to narrow my focus and sell off a few things? These large scale trains take up alot of room and if they are not being used they can be expensive dust collectors. I think there is money out there but people are being more selective with what they buy.
Perhaps the market will pick up for Christmas?
I for one would love to pick up a 3 truck shay now going for a excellent price most everywhere but I really can’t justify another large loco and the shelf space it would take up. My wife would kill me.
I bought TWO three-truck Shays for $300 each three years ago.
By the time they had been delivered here in yUK they were $350 each. At that time they were selling here like hot cakes for about $1000…
tac
The train market as a whole is in a funk. Helping a buddy with his booth at several shows, we saw lots of little items in folks bags, but not the high doller engines. Mostly used or inexpensive freight cars, track, cork road bed and building kits. Most of the high doller stuff just sits. I have gotten several good deals on LGB for our layout during this time. So its a good time to buy if you have the $$. About the only thing I cannot find is a 2120 black/green Stainz #2. I have all the passenger cars I want, and only lack a couple freight wagons I want. My 21220 Stainz w/sound is maxed out trying to pull it all! I hope now that we are past the election, for better or worse, the country can move on and find its way out of this mess we are in. Should be very interesting to see the Christmas sales figures this year. Happy Holidays everybody. Mike and Michele T
I hope not. as I like geared Loco’s. Have several. But as to the buying and /or selling we shall see in a couple od months when the show is here in Western Washington. Last year’s show there were a lot of major sellers with lots of stuff but how well they did I don’t know. Me I am max’ed out on Loco’s, any one want a rod Loco or two?
Paul