Large Scale Central

Exchange rate

We haven’t had significant inflation since the seventies, since the Fed adopted Monetarist economic policies, which regard inflation as the primary evil. It’s interesting that since 2008 we have added a lot of money to the economy without having a lot of inflation–the price of gold has gone up, but not the price of eggs or milk. The usual argument is that the money spent in the recent stimulus bill prevented deflation and economic contraction: it didn’t cause infllation because it kept the dollar at parity when the financial crisis hit.

The relative strength or weakness of the dollar also has to do with what other countries do–for example, if England contracts its currency, the dollar gets weaker relative to the pound. You hear a lot of criticism that EU should have done more deficit spending and weakened the Euro, for example, and that as with defense they are letting the US do the work. I’m not an economist so I run out of expertise quickly.

This is what the Fed is supposed to do–look at import export figures, GDP, unemployment, wage and price indexes, and set a course that corrects for imbalances.

It all depends on how the different factors get measured i.e. if we didn’t have huge inflation on the brass track front then what did we have (that is just the example close at hand that some of you can relate to!:P)?

If the powers would compile the factors in smaller groups i.e. break out food into the different categories i.e. items that don’t need processing, items that need very little processing and the crap that has almost nothing but processing, it would be some eye opener for some to see exactly where the price increases happen. Do that to all the groups that make up the “consumer basket” and then let us see/hear the uproar regarding the nonexisting inflation. Even better, do that right across the board and there would be a “revolution”.

The “magicians” at the Fed (and any other central bank) massage the real figures in such a way as to not rock the boat. Same goes with the measures they take in order to keep things “moving”. And … guess who the big losers are when all is said and done!?! :wink: :slight_smile:

This is a website I use to look at historical inflationary values. FWIW

Seven Ways to Compute the Relative Value of a U.S. Dollar Amount, 1774 to Present

In 2009, $1,000.00 from 1975 is worth:
$3,980.00 using the Consumer Price Index
$3,270.00 using the GDP deflator
$3,940.00 using the unskilled wage
$4,340.00 using the Production Worker Compensation
$6,120.00 using the nominal GDP per capita
$8,710.00 using the relative share of GDP

Data for the consumer bundle is only available through 2008.

If you need help/ determining which result is most appropriate for you, see Choosing the Best Indicator to Measure Relative Worth.

For construction of the Indicators, go to CPI | GDP | Consumer Bundle | Unskilled Wage | Compensation of Production Workers series.

On the same site is the Exchange Rates Between the United States Dollar and Forty-one Currencies, if anyone is interested. http://www.measuringworth.org/exchangeglobal/

yes but most of the inflation after 1974 was over by 1983. Inflation peaked in the early 80s, when it hit 13%. It was Paul Volcker as fed chairman who usually gets credit for ending it. He let interest rates soar–I remember when I worked on a maintenance crew and there were guys paying double digit interest on mortgages. There was high inflation from 764 to 83, then it settled at around 3%, which is where monetarism says it should stay

So that index is slightly misleading. If you measured it from 1983, you’d get a very different figure. Inflation in and of itself isn’t always bad. It’s bad for those on a fixed income, and it’s bad for those who lend money. For someone like me, on a regular salary with a fixed 30 year mortgage payment, inflation would be a great thing.

Just pointing out that the declining purchasing power of the dollar in and of itself does not mean all that mean all that much

I do NOT want to get into a p155ing contest here. Again, FYI

In 2009, $1,000.00 from 1983 is worth:
$2,150.00 using the Consumer Price Index
$1,910.00 using the GDP deflator
$2,170.00 using the unskilled wage
$2,330.00 using the Production Worker Compensation
$3,070.00 using the nominal GDP per capita
$4,030.00 using the relative share of GDP

well, two years ago we had to pay nearly 7’000Gs. (our local money) for one us$.
today i get one us for just 4,000Gs.
but the other southamerican currencies did not go down compared to Gs.
its only dollar, euro and yen that went down the drain.

OK, but what is this proving? Should we be upset about it? Inflation is meaningless if wages keep up with it–I don’t care if a carton of eggs costs $10, if that ten dollars is as easy to come by as three dollars is today. The issue isn’t the “name” of the price, it’s something more general, “standard of living.” Prices for lots of things have gone down–clothes, for example–or more commonly, the price stays roughly the same but includes more. Computers are a good example–the same 1000 buys ten times as much as it did ten years ago. The thing to look at, in my opinion, is not the price itself, but the price relative to wages. If prices radically outstrip wage growth, then you have a big problem. Many people would argue–and again I’m not trying to endorse any political position here–that wages have kept pace with inflation, and so price increases don’t matter. I don’t entirely agree with that, but it makes the point that inflation per se is not a big problem. A dollar bought a lot more in 1910. Were Americans better off in 1900? That’s a hard question to answer and it depends on a whole bunch of things.

Kormsen’s phrase “down the drain” points to the problem. It suggests that the low dollar, relative to whatever currency he’s using, indicates the decline of America. But it would be easy to argue that making the dollar “strong” would only weaken american industry and increase the flight of jobs overseas. I don’t know exactly where Kormsen lives, but he often describes it as a backwater miles from any commerce. But it has a strong currency!

“Inflation”–printing more money than you actually have, in the form of loans–is crucial to capitalism. It’s what banks do–they hope that the money lent out will come back as–more money! A bank has 1000 bucks in gold, they issue $5000 in loans; they get paid back $8000: voila–inflation. In the course of a few years $1000 has multiplied eight times; there’s eight times as much money sloshing around the economy. Money is being created all the time, and this has been the case since 1776 at least. It’s essential to economic growth, it’s the backbone of capitalism. Ideally, the amount of money created exactly matches the pace of economic growth, and so there is no inflation. But in practice, that keeps interest rates high, which discourages entrepreneurship, so there is a delicate balancing act between growth in the money supply and inflation.

Once again I’m really not trying to debate the relative merits of this or that administration, just suggesting that the price of a dollar relative to gold isn’t really that significant. It’s not meaningless, but it’s not automatically a sign of the decline of American civilization

I did not get from your half of the discussion you were taking any political stance, as I am not wanting to get into politics either. (I’m already on enough shit-list on LSC.) I had/have an honest question about something I understand very little about.

What is the relationship of the value of the US Dollar (or any currency) to the world currency exchange rates and inflation?

If inflation is indeed a net-zero sum, wages increase and dollar value decreases, what is the purpose? Who benefits? Will not those who are in debt benefit, but folks who are savers will loose value? Which prompts another question; is the “manipulation” of the value of money to discourage savings and encourage debt?

Something this important should not be so complex to understand. Or, is that the goal?

David Hill said:
as I am not wanting to get into politics either. (I'm already on enough shit-list on LSC.)

Which prompts another question; is the “manipulation” of the value of money to discourage savings and encourage debt?


Getting off the list takes more effort than getting on :wink:

When they pay you 1/4 of 1 percent interest on a savings account…they’re not encouraging savings :smiley:
Ralph

mike omalley said:
OK, but what is this proving? Should we be upset about it? Inflation is meaningless if wages keep up with it--I don't care if a carton of eggs costs $10, if that ten dollars is as easy to come by as three dollars is today. The issue isn't the "name" of the price, it's something more general, "standard of living." Prices for lots of things have gone down--clothes, for example--or more commonly, the price stays roughly the same but includes more. Computers are a good example--the same 1000 buys ten times as much as it did ten years ago. The thing to look at, in my opinion, is not the price itself, but the price relative to wages. If prices radically outstrip wage growth, then you have a big problem. Many people would argue--and again I'm not trying to endorse any political position here--that wages have kept pace with inflation, and so price increases don't matter. I don't entirely agree with that, but it makes the point that inflation per se is not a big problem. A dollar bought a lot more in 1910. Were Americans better off in 1900? That's a hard question to answer and it depends on a whole bunch of things.
i might agree... but for the little point of those trillions of debts, that have accumulated thanks to the intent to keep the standard of living up.
Quote:
. Kormsen's phrase "down the drain" points to the problem. It suggests that the low dollar, relative to whatever currency he's using, indicates the decline of America. But it would be easy to argue that making the dollar "strong" would only weaken american industry and increase the flight of jobs overseas.
what industry? even cars and computers nowadays come from asia. the US-brand artikles sold in southamerica are produced in brasil or argentina. on the other hand only about every fifth dollar actually is in the US. the other 80% are abroad - as debts, as obligations to be changed for products or services.
Quote:
. I don't know exactly where Kormsen lives, but he often describes it as a backwater miles from any commerce. But it has a strong currency!
in paraguay a small "banana-republik" far south. the currency was 126 Gs. to 1$US in 1985. during the latin crisis it went down to nearly 7000Gs to 1$US. since the european and US banks don't give us any new credits, the relation went up to about 4000Gs to 1 $US. the third world currencies get stronger, because we sell to the US, but there is nothing anymore to buy from the US. the fact, that south american currencies get stronger against $, euro and yen does not show, that latin america is rising. is shows, that the first world is declining.
Quote:
. "Inflation"--printing more money than you actually have, in the form of loans--is crucial to capitalism. It's what banks do--they hope that the money lent out will come back as--more money! A bank has 1000 bucks in gold, they issue $5000 in loans; they get paid back $8000: voila--inflation. In the course of a few years $1000 has multiplied eight times; there's eight times as much money sloshing around the economy. Money is being created all the time, and this has been the case since 1776 at least. It's essential to economic growth, it's the backbone of capitalism. Ideally, the amount of money created exactly matches the pace of economic growth, and so there is no inflation. But in practice, that keeps interest rates high, which discourages entrepreneurship, so there is a delicate balancing act between growth in the money supply and inflation.
this statement is faulty. the excessive inflation could not set in, before the $ was "freed" from any relation to real, material worth. the US $ was stable, till Nixon(?) gave up the gold standard.
Quote:
. Once again I'm really not trying to debate the relative merits of this or that administration, just suggesting that the price of a dollar relative to gold isn't really that significant. It's not meaningless, but it's not automatically a sign of the decline of American civilization
you are right. the low price of the dollar is not a mere sign of the decline. - it is its major cause!

if the western, “developed” countries were to be judged by common law, they all would be bankrupt and dissolved by now.

Ralph Berg said:
David Hill said:
as I am not wanting to get into politics either. (I'm already on enough shit-list on LSC.)

Which prompts another question; is the “manipulation” of the value of money to discourage savings and encourage debt?


Getting off the list takes more effort than getting on :wink:

Do you think I may live that long?

“Life’s journey is not to arrive at the grave safely in a well preserved body,
but rather to skid in sideways, totally worn out, shouting “…holy sh*t …what a ride!””

David Hill said:
Ralph Berg said:
David Hill said:
as I am not wanting to get into politics either. (I'm already on enough shit-list on LSC.)

Which prompts another question; is the “manipulation” of the value of money to discourage savings and encourage debt?


Getting off the list takes more effort than getting on :wink:

Do you think I may live that long?

“Life’s journey is not to arrive at the grave safely in a well preserved body,
but rather to skid in sideways, totally worn out, shouting “…holy sh*t …what a ride!””


Probably not.
But threads like this aren’t helping :wink:

I’m sure I’m on a few lists myself. I don’t lose any sleep over it, as I’m sure you don’t either :slight_smile:
Ralph

David Hill said:
I did not get from your half of the discussion you were taking any political stance, as I am not wanting to get into politics either. (I'm already on enough shit-list on LSC.) I had/have an honest question about something I understand very little about.

What is the relationship of the value of the US Dollar (or any currency) to the world currency exchange rates and inflation?

If inflation is indeed a net-zero sum, wages increase and dollar value decreases, what is the purpose? Who benefits? Will not those who are in debt benefit, but folks who are savers will loose value? Which prompts another question; is the “manipulation” of the value of money to discourage savings and encourage debt?

Something this important should not be so complex to understand. Or, is that the goal?


David,

I’m reasonably sure there are enough books on the subject to keep you reading for some time. :wink: The one that I inherited (too much for the original owner) is in German “Gold, Geld und Gottspieler” (Gold, money and those who play God). Published in 2004 the subtitle is “On the eve of the next global economic crisis”. :wink: :slight_smile:

Getting through it all took some time, the gist of the book “Get government out of the money business!”

Yes HJ, one can learn much from reading. One can also learn much and stir the gray matter up a little by conversation with intelligent and informed people.

I have started reading Ludwig von Misses The Theory of Credit and Money until it became drudgery.

Ralph, I certainly hope this discussion is not getting anyone’s panties in a bunch. It has been civil and, in my case, informative.

David Hill said:
.....

I have started reading Ludwig von Misses The Theory of Credit and Money until it became drudgery.


That’s how I “inherited” the book I mentioned, took a very long attention span. :wink: :slight_smile:

David Hill said:
Ralph, I certainly hope this discussion is not getting anyone's panties in a bunch. It has been civil and, in my case, informative.
Not that the discussion isn't civil to this point..............it's just hard to keep non political ;) Certain subjects head down that road, intentional or not.

No problem with my panties :smiley:
Ralph

It’s hard for me to imagine how you get government out of money. Gold isn’t money–it’s a commodity. Trading wheat for gold is barter; it’s exactly like trading wheat for apples. Gold becomes money when some regulating authority certifies its weight and purity, minting it into coins of casting it as ingots of a certified weight and purity. Taking a gold billet and stamping it with the image of the king makes it money. The King’s image certifies the value of the gold, and makes the gold coin more useful than gold nuggets or gold dust, because it’s faster. Lay the coin down, and everyone involves knows its value. Lay the nugget down, and it has to be assayed. It might be possible to have a non-governmental authority certify the value of a gold coin, but you’d need some legal and political enforcer–a government–behind it.

Barter involves trading one thing of value for another. But money introduces the symbolic into the equation–the coin symbolizes something. The King’s authority, the farmer’s labor, the principle of liberty, the idea of purity" money is symbolic in a way that objects in barter are not. Often the thing money symbolizes is not very obvious. For example, our paper money is backed by, is a symbol of, the labor of the American people and the material wealth of the USA. That’s pretty abstract–it’s real, the labor is real, the assets of the USA are real, but the paper as a symbol is pretty abstract.

The gold standard is attractive to people because gold appears permanent, objective, “natural” and “real.” It’s not abstract. But gold has no magic properties: if the economy collapsed tomorrow gold would have value, but so would iron, bullets, cans of soup and rolls of paper towels. And even under a gold standard, in capitalism, there is always money floating around which is not actually backed by gold–again, this is the essence of credit. Banks have 1000 in gold, they loan out 5000 with the expectation of getting 8000 in 5 years. In theories of the gold standard, the bank would have to be paid back in gold at the end of ten years. Where is that gold coming from?

It’s either coming out of someone else’s pocket, which means if I’m getting richer someone else is getting poorer, or it’s coming out of the earth–theoretically, gold would become so valuable that it’d be worth it to extract it in minute amounts from millions of gallons of seawater. But why? Why go to that trouble? Why would you have to wait to get a loan till more seawater had been processed?

What we have had since 1913 is a paper money indexed to the GDP, more or, less, and nominally we had a gold standard, but officially we went off it domestically in 1934 and internationally in 1972. It seems to be working ok, really. There no evidence that we have greater financial instability now then we did in 1878, or 1898 or 1938, say, or 1988. The money system we have now was pretty much envisioned very eloquently by Ben Franklin back in 1729 (http://etext.virginia.edu/users/brock/webdoc6.html). Milton Friedman himself, the Father of monetarism, says a gold standard is unworkable.

Friedman’s basic argument was that the govt. should as much as possible make money-making an automated, routine thing. Increase the money supply by, say, 3% every year, automatically. That way you would have steady economic growth and stable prices and interest rates. In practice it’s hard to do that, because there are depressions and booms in which the money supply contracts – we just had a big one–or increases as growth accelerates, as in the 90s. There are sudden material shortages of real commodities. Generally when the Fed makes one group happy it makes another group unhappy.

For the last decade China has had the fastest, most extensive economic growth the world has ever seen, and it’s done it in large part by keeping its currency really weak. This grows their economy but keeps the standard of living for Chinese workers lower than it would be if the currency were allowed to “float.” Sooner or later China will have to deal with that. It will probably have to strengthen the renmin, which means the dollar will go down, which means Chinese exports will be more expensive, which will make US goods more attractive and encourage overseas production to move back to the US. But of course, in the near term it would also mean that US consumers have less purchasing power.

In my opinion it’s a balancing act–there’s no magical solution.

Mike,

I don’t advance those propositions/theories or whatever, I just read about them, file them in my CPU (confused processing unit), then refer to them when the discussion drifts in that direction. :wink: :slight_smile:

mike said:
It will probably have to strengthen the renmin, which means the dollar will go down, which means Chinese exports will be more expensive, which will make US goods more attractive and encourage overseas production to move back to the US. But of course, in the near term it would also mean that US consumers have less purchasing power.
There are a few variations on that theme. ;) :)

The only thing I may disagree with mike, is the assumption that for one person to get rich another must get poorer. It does not seem we have a finite amount of value, whether it is currency in the form of gold or fiat money that can be accumulated through selling a service, product or idea.

OT, Couldn’t one’s wages be thought of in essence as a barter of time worked for money. an even exchange with no appreciation in value, i.e. no income?